2026-03-05 08:55
publication
2026-03-05 08:55
The energy crisis caused by the American-Israeli attack on Iran, combined with the not very prudent decision of the Monetary Policy Council, led to further weakening of the zloty. The euro exchange rate tried to break through the line of PLN 4.30, while the Swiss franc paired with the euro was close to the strongest levels in history.
The war with Iran, which has been ongoing since Saturday, has resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's crude oil supplies normally flowed. In Europe – and partly also in Asia – this means a regular fuel crisis, with prices several dozen percent higher than a week ago.
The situation on the fuel markets also affects Poland as a large importer of energy – primarily crude oil and natural gas. As a result, on Tuesday the euro exchange rate tested the level of PLN 4.30, reaching the highest value since April '25. The second blow came on Wednesday afternoon from the Monetary Policy Council, which, despite such a strong inflation impulse, decided to reduce interest rates again.
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– We assume that the president's comment will be cautious, and the Council will switch to a more hawkish stance while observing the development of the situation in Iran. The target level of the NBP rate may turn out to be higher than the 3.25 percent we have expected so far. – this is what economists from ING Bank Śląski wrote in a commentary on the MPC decision. The conference of the President of the NBP, Adam Glapiński, is scheduled for 3:00 p.m.
All this did not help the zloty. On Thursday morning, the euro cost PLN 4.2827 and was over a penny more expensive than at the end of Wednesday's quotations. Over the previous week, the EUR/PLN exchange rate increased by over 6 groszy and broke out of the local consolidation in force since the beginning of the year in the range of PLN 4.1950-4.2450. The good news is that for now the potential for further PLN weakening seems to be exhausted.
– At the moment, there are no clear signals of de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and the risk of further increase in prices of energy raw materials remains significant, which was already visible during the Asian part of Thursday's session. Therefore, we assume that the zloty may weaken again against the dollar, the yields of TS will increase slightly, and the EURPLN rate will maintain increased volatility in the range of 4.25-4.30 – wrote PKO BP economists in the morning report.
The tense situation in the Middle East continues to favor safe havens for global capital. This is visible, for example, in the almost record-high quotations of the Swiss franc in relation to the euro. The latter were valued at only 90.5 centimes. On the Polish market, this translated into PLN 4.7252 per franc. A day earlier, the CHF/PLN exchange rate reached as high as PLN 4.7474 and was the highest since October 2023.
The American dollar was still relatively strong and sold for PLN 3.6861 in the morning. However, this is clearly less than the over PLN 3.73 we observed during the height of Tuesday's panic in the financial markets. However, the British pound was worth PLN 4.9224, which was a penny more than the day before.
K.K
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