The Monetary Policy Council cuts rates again and the stock market rebounds. The end of panic among investors?
Wednesday brought a moment of relief for investors, but analysts warn that given the current geopolitical instability, each subsequent session may bring another twist. Signals about possible peace negotiations became catalysts for a dynamic rebound on the stock markets. In Poland, the number one event was the cutting of interest rates by the Monetary Policy Council, which, however, did not damage the zloty much. The bulls returned to the game with a vengeance, making up for much of the losses from the previous trading days.
The main reason for Wednesday's optimism were reports from overseas. The American press reported that Iranian intelligence services were to contact the CIA in order to start peace talks, which the market perceived as an opportunity to end the conflict. The tension was further relieved by President Donald Trump's assurances about the escort of tankers in the previously blocked Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil prices stabilized, losing about 0.5 percent on Wednesday. after the New York Times reports about the readiness of the Iranian services for talks. February's data from the American labor market remained overshadowed by events in the Middle East. The ADP report indicated an increase in employment in the private sector by 63,000 jobs, which exceeded market expectations (50,000 forecasts), confirming a moderate improvement in the condition of the US economy.
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The WSE is in the phase of dynamic recovery
The Warsaw indices started to make up for losses after an extremely painful beginning of the week, when in just two days the WIG20 lost 5.5% and the broad WIG dropped by 5.3%. At the end of Wednesday's session, the WIG20 increased by 2.266%, reaching the level of 3,335.75 points. The broad WIG index increased by 2.43%. to 123,047.41 points, mWIG40 recorded an increase by 1.84 percent, and sWIG80 gained 2.36 percent. The turnover on the broad market was estimated at PLN 2.6 billion, of which PLN 2.18 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
XTB analysts emphasize that such rapid changes in mood are becoming a new market norm. “The current market situation best shows that investors today operate in conditions of increased uncertainty, where moods can change from day to day. (…) Today's increases on the WSE show the readiness to quickly take advantage of discounts, but the sentiment may reverse just as quickly. In the current conditions, it is difficult to rule out any scenario related to Iran, and increased volatility will remain a key element of the market landscape in the coming days,” noted Mikołaj Sobierajski, XTB analyst.
Banks and KGHM as drivers of growth
The banking sector, which had been under severe pressure in the previous days, saw a clear recovery. The WIG Banki index gained 2.79%, returning to the level of 20,000 points. The demand for bank shares continued even despite the decision of the Monetary Policy Council, which returned to the cycle of interest rate cuts. Although this resulted in a temporary weakening of the zloty, the improvement in global sentiment meant that the Polish currency was stronger against the euro and the dollar on Wednesday than the day before.
The stars of the banking sector turned out to be Alior Bank (3.88%), mBank (3.37%), PKO BP (3.57%) and ING Bank Śląski with mWIG40 (3.84%), which grew by over 3%. Investors enthusiastically accepted the recommendation of the ING management board, which proposed the payment of a record dividend of PLN 26.71 per share (PLN 3.47 billion in total).
KGHM was equally impressive, gaining nearly 4 percent. The company, which lost a total of 10.7 percent on Monday and Tuesday, reassured the market regarding energy security. A spokesman for KGHM assured that the company has secured gas supplies at favorable prices and does not see any risk of reducing production despite the raw material turmoil. The main catalyst for the increases was probably the increases in copper (0.9%) and silver (1.5%).
The energy sector was slower to recover
Even though the energy sector grew slower than the rest of the market (1.58%), it was full of groundbreaking information. The PGE Group signed contracts worth PLN 6 billion for the construction of gas power plants in Rybnik and Gryfino. President Dariusz Lubera emphasized that he did not see any threats to gas supplies due to the situation in the Middle East. PGE shares increased by 2.05 percent, and Polimex Mostostal also became a beneficiary of the agreements, whose price increased by 4.93 percent. In turn, Tauron announced the reversal of write-downs in the amount of PLN 392 million, which could support the increase in the price, which gained 1.36%. Enea gained more (1.43%), and Kogeneracja turned out to be the leader of the sector quotations (3.69%).
Orlen also recorded a rebound (2.68%), which was blamed on the Prime Minister's unfortunate statement on Tuesday. The company announced on Wednesday that the model refining margin in February 2026 increased to USD 10.5 from USD 8.8 in January 2026. In total, 18 companies saw share price increases in WIG20, of which 13 gained at least 2%. After a spectacular 38% increase since the beginning of the year, Orange securities fell on Wednesday (-1.03%). Modivo was also below the line (-1.07%). The leader of the increases in WIG20 was the CD Projekt price (5.99%).
Mining companies in the black
In the segment of medium-sized companies, Vercom and Ten Square Games were the leaders, recording increases of 8-10 percent. Cyber_Folks also attracted attention, whose shares rose by 7.24 percent. following the publication of estimated results for the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a 36.4% increase in net profit year-on-year. Coal companies remained on the wave of Tuesday's gains, although their dynamics weakened – JSW gained 1.16% and Bogdanka 1.42%.
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