publication
2026-03-04 14:55
update
2026-03-04 15:01
However, at its March meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to reduce interest rates despite the sharp increase in energy prices and the sharp weakening of the zloty. In reaction, the Polish currency began to lose against the euro and the dollar.
Pursuant to the decision of the Monetary Policy Council of March 4, 2026, the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland will be as follows:
- reference rate 3.75% per annum;
- lombard rate 4.25% per annum;
- deposit rate 3.25% per annum;
- rediscount rate of bills of exchange 3.80% per annum;
- bill of exchange discount rate 3.85% per annum.
Theoretically speaking, such a decision is not a surprise, because before the weekend the vast majority of market economists assumed a 25 bp rate cut at the National Bank of Poland. On the other hand, the economic consequences of the American-Israeli attack on Iran (i.e. a sharp increase in fuel and energy prices and a significant weakening of the zloty) would recommend caution in further loosening monetary policy in Poland. In this context, not cutting rates – or at least postponing it – would be a quite understandable decision.
We are therefore dealing with a resumption of the “non-cycle” of interest rate cuts that started in the spring of 2025. Previously, the Council did not decide to change the monetary policy at the January and February meetings. Moreover, after the December reduction, some Council members in their communication suggested a pause of several months in this “non-cycle” of monetary policy easing.
In response to the Monetary Policy Council's announcement, the euro exchange rate increased significantly. At 3:00 p.m. the community currency cost PLN 4.2740 compared to approximately PLN 4.26 before the Council's decision.
NBP rates are already low and are expected to be even lower
Interest rates at the National Bank of Poland are still at the lowest levels since April 2022. In 2025, there were six further reductions in loan costs at the NBP, after which the reference rate has already decreased by 200 basis points. lower than it was in spring last year. It all started in May, when the Monetary Policy Council, after almost half a year of stabilizing the money price, immediately decided to cut it by 50 points. Then the Council officially talked about “adjusting” interest rates and swore that this was not the beginning of a cycle of reductions. As it turned out later, this was not true.
In June, the Council “rested” and kept rates unchanged. Another cut – surprising for most economists – 25 bp. – took place in July, and the next one (already expected by the market) materialized in September. The cuts continued also in October, when the Council lowered rates contrary to the expectations of most analysts. We also experienced further reductions in November and – contrary to unwritten tradition – also in December.
After last year's reductions, interest rates at the National Bank of Poland went from moderately high to moderately low. The reference rate of 4.00% is probably already below the neutral level and may begin to be perceived as a manifestation of the slightly expansionary monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland. The central value (median) for the NBP reference rate for the last 26 years is 4.25%. It just means that We are slowly approaching the end of this “non-cycle” of monetary policy easing.
At the same time, until recently, economists collectively predicted further easing of inflation pressure and stabilization of the annual CPI dynamics around 2-3%. That is, at a level consistent with the 2.5% target of the National Bank of Poland. This situation was supposed to allow for further reductions in interest rates, ultimately to 3.00-3.50%. According to economists, this state was to be achieved around mid-2026.
– Further reductions in NBP rates are a matter of time, and the next one will be in March – this is what PKO BP analysts assessed a month ago. But the war in the Middle East, which is ongoing for the fifth day, has led to a sharp increase in energy prices and a weakening of the zloty, which is a strongly pro-inflation factor and encourages greater caution in loosening monetary policy.
Who likes low interest rates?
Lower interest rates please debtors who repay their liabilities based on a variable interest rate. This group mainly includes people in debt for the purchase of real estate who incurred their obligations before 2022. The ruling politicians will be even more pleased, as the State Treasury is the largest debtor in the country.
At the same time, they mean increasingly lower interest rates on bank deposits and bonds – both treasury and corporate ones. Therefore, the possibility of sensible and safe investment of savings is limited. However, real positive interest rates (ex post) still apply in Poland. This means that the NBP reference rate exceeds CPI inflation for the previous 12 months.
The publication of the official statement of the Monetary Policy Council containing the justification for the January decision is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. Everything will be explained in more detail by the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapiński, during Thursday's press conference. The next Council meeting is scheduled for April 8-9.
