Amid the ongoing war with Iran and direct military support from the United States, the Israeli government seems determined to redefine its strategic position in the region, targeting multiple adversaries simultaneously, writes The New York Times.
Israeli aviation, feared in the region/PHOTO: X
For years, although it has consistently criticized Iran's nuclear program, Israel has avoided a direct military confrontation with Tehran, fearing the reaction of its ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah. The group possessed a sizable arsenal of rockets capable of hitting Israeli cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv.
Currently, however, Israel and the United States control the airspace over Iran and conduct attacks on Iranian ballistic infrastructure.
Expansion of confrontation
The situation escalated after Hezbollah launched a limited missile and drone attack on northern Israel. Although the military impact was small, the Israeli response was extensive: the authorities announced a major counteroffensive, targeting the group's leaders in Beirut and other areas of Lebanon.
Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said the operation would not end “until the threat from Lebanon is eliminated,” hinting at a protracted conflict.
Analysts say Israel is taking advantage of perceived weaknesses in Iran and Hezbollah, as well as its strengthened partnership with Washington, to pursue broader geopolitical goals.
Change of doctrine after October 7
The current strategy reflects, according to experts, a significant shift in Israel's strategic thinking after the attack launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023, which exposed major deficiencies in Israeli intelligence services.
In this context, the Israeli authorities seem less willing to wait for confirmation of the imminence of a threat. “The discussion of whether or not Iran was close to getting a nuclear weapon is no longer essential at this point,” said Shira Efron, an analyst at RAND.
According to some defense officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would have asked since last year to prepare a plan for a possible attack on Iran. Initially, military commanders were reportedly reluctant, worried about Israel's ability to deal with an Iranian retaliation on its own.
The situation changed after the United States began concentrating forces in the region, including a large fleet of aerial refueling aircraft, facilitating a large-scale Israeli air operation.
Possible ground offensive in Lebanon
As for Lebanon, analysts believe the current campaign could go beyond airstrikes and turn into a limited ground operation. The Israeli army confirmed that troops had taken control of areas in southern Lebanon, describing the move as “a tactical step”.
Hezbollah claims its attacks were in response to repeated Israeli strikes, which it sees as violations of the 2024 ceasefire. Lebanese authorities have reported dozens of deaths and tens of thousands of people displaced since clashes resumed.
Between opportunity and risk
Prime Minister Netanyahu recently said that “the day is coming” when the Iranian people will be able to escape the “yoke of tyranny”, adding that Israel and the United States will stand with them.
For some analysts, the optimism displayed by the Israeli leadership reflects military successes in recent years, including the weakening of Iran's allies in Syria and Lebanon.
But others warn of the risk of overextension. “For a country of ten million people to think it can reshape the entire region through military force alone is a risky ambition,” said Shira Efron. “Political agreements are as important as victories on the battlefield.”
Developments in the coming weeks will show whether this strategy will strengthen Israel's position or open a new chapter of instability in the Middle East, NYT concludes.
