Effects from Iran: The price of oil has a double weight compared to the price of gas in the Romanian's consumption basket. What does this mean?
Concordia Confederation Chief Economist Iulian Lolea warns: a prolonged escalation of the US-Iran conflict could push year-end inflation to 5-5.5%, from the 3.9-4% target, through rising oil prices and knock-on effects on transport and manufacturing.
“A $10 increase in the oil barrel leads to an increase in the price at the pump by about 0.7-0.8 lei. Gasoline was close to 8 lei – we will probably see it at 8.7 lei. In inflation, a 10% increase in the oil barrel translates into an increase in inflation by 0.5 percentage points,” says Iulian Lolea
About the price of energy
How the war in 2026 will end no one knows. But we know that in 1979 there was another energy crisis caused by the powerful events in Iran. Although oil production fell by only about 7%, the crisis since then has caused long queues at petrol stations due to this reduction and panic buying
Now, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – through which about 20% of global oil consumption passes, equivalent to about 20 million barrels per day – has almost completely stopped. Marine insurance costs have exploded and shipping companies are avoiding the area. Brent, the global benchmark for oil prices, climbed to $80 a barrel just after markets opened, with analysts warning it could top $100 if the stalemate drags on.
“What will influence us following this war in the Middle East is the price of energy: the price of oil and the price of gas. The price of oil will influence us more, because it has more than double the weight compared to gas – between 7 and 8% in the consumption basket,” Lolea says.
The direct impact: What is happening to the price at the pump in Romania
Romania is relatively little directly exposed to Gulf suppliers – our biggest oil partner is Kazakhstan. However, oil is a global commodity: a disruption anywhere in the world is immediately transmitted in prices everywhere.
Lolea points out a worrying element: Romania has the highest rate of transmission of fuel price increases in Central and Eastern Europe. That is, an increase in the price of oil is felt faster and more strongly in us compared to our neighbors.
What global analysts say: Possible scenarios
Global financial analysts have outlined several scenarios depending on the duration of the conflict:
Short conflict (a few days–weeks): Brent is back in the $60–$70 per barrel range, according to Bank of America. The inflationary impact remains limited and temporary.
Prolonged conflict (over three weeks): Gulf states' storage capacities run out, production may be halted. JPMorgan analysts estimate that Brent could reach $120 a barrel.
Extreme scenario – total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: Deutsche Bank estimates that Brent could rise to $200 a barrel if Iran manages to impose a full naval blockade with mines and anti-ship missiles.
Inflation, Budget and Windfall Winners
“This may take inflation to 5-5.5% at the end of the year, from the target of 3.9-4%. But the worst thing is that an increase in inflation will affect purchasing power and economic growth,” the chief economist says.
Paradoxically, the state budget could benefit. The state owns energy companies from which it will collect higher dividends, and excise taxes – applied as a percentage – will generate increased revenues. Those who will suffer the most, instead, are the transporters, the chemical industry and the HoReCa sector.
Lolea also points to a likely political effect: rising energy prices will reignite pressures for caps and offsets, similar to the mechanisms introduced in 2021–2022 in the context of the post-pandemic energy crisis.
Europe, at the worst possible time
ING analysts warn that Europe is the most vulnerable continent in the current context: the euro zone was just showing signs of recovery from stagnation, and now it is simultaneously facing an energy shock and the pressures of the trade war generated by the American tariffs. Unlike the US, which produces a significant portion of its own oil, Europe imports almost all of its hydrocarbon consumption.
An ECB analysis from December 2025 estimated that a 14% rise in the price of oil would push up eurozone inflation by 0.5 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.1 points – and that's without taking into account the effects of disruptions in supply chains.
It all depends on how long it will take
“If the rise in oil prices lasts for 2-3 weeks, even a jump to 80-90 dollars per barrel will not have a significant impact. It will only create a little panic. But the longer it lasts, the more devastating the effects are – primarily on inflation,” explains Lolea
The economists' message is consistent: the key variable remains the duration of the conflict. If the US and Israel quickly achieve their military objectives, the impact on prices will be temporary.
If the war is prolonged, Romania – with the highest transmission rate of energy shocks in the region – will fully feel the consequences, with inflation that could far exceed the National Bank's targets and an eroded purchasing power just before summer.
