Concerns that oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could be paralyzed for months due to Iran's drone strikes

Iranian drone strikes could disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for months, but the length of time the Islamic Republic could sustain its missile barrage is less clear, according to intelligence sources and military analysts consulted by Reuters.

Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, Tehran has fired hundreds of missiles and more than 1,000 drones at Washington-allied Gulf states. Most were intercepted by air defense systems, but some hotels, residential and commercial buildings, infrastructure and US military bases suffered damage.

Tehran is a major producer of drones and has the industrial capacity to manufacture about 10,000 a month, according to the Center for Information Resilience (CIR), a non-profit research group funded by the British Foreign Office.

The size of Iran's missile stockpile is unknown. The Israeli military estimates their number at 2,500, while some analysts speak of around 6,000. How much of Iran's arsenal remains intact could be a key factor in determining the course of the war.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas transits, has been one of Iran's main objectives, and shipping through the crucial energy artery has come to a near standstill after Iranian strikes on six ships.

Energy prices rose, with Brent crude up 12 percent and a benchmark European natural gas index up about 50 percent this week.

“Iran will not give in easily or quickly; it has the means to make commercial traffic through Hormuz unsafe,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, told Reuters.

“The US prioritizes attacking Iranian munitions, bases and facilities that threaten the Strait. But all Iran has to do is show it can hit a few tankers and the concerns will take care of the rest – nobody will just go through there,” McNally points out.

Missile reserves, a vulnerable point for Iran

A former director of Britain's MI6 foreign intelligence service told Reuters that, instead, strategic missile stockpiles are a vulnerable point for Iran's armed forces.

“Russia is not in a position to resupply, and China will be quite cautious about it. If it were found out that China is actually providing serious military equipment to Iran, it would be received very badly by the Gulf Cooperation Council states,” he said, referring to GCC members Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.

A second Western intelligence source said the missile stockpiles may be lower because Tehran has supplied weapons to the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon and Yemen's Houthi rebels.

Iran's stockpiles were also depleted by the 12-day war against Israel in June 2025, but have been partially restored, according to Israeli military intelligence.

A major constraint could be missile launchers. Stockpiles have at least halved over the past year due to strikes by Israel and the US, and have fallen further in the past five days, according to research by Britain's CIR.

Iran's new “Shahed” drones can hit targets 1,000 kilometers away

But Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, says Iran is likely to be able to sustain a protracted conflict with its drones. The latest generation of Shahed-136 drones have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers, enough to reach anywhere along the southern Gulf coast when launched from Iranian soil or ships.

A CIR analyst pointed out that many of these drones are produced in dual-use factories, civil and military, and other facilities could be reconfigured to speed up production.

Iranian drones have been able to penetrate past the Gulf states' air defense systems, with 65 of them entering UAE space alone since the conflict broke out.

They hit Amazon data centers, Dubai International Airport and a Fairmont hotel. Bahrain suffered material damage to infrastructure, a US naval base and a tower housing a hotel and apartments.

Sea mines, another concern for maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

Reuters notes that oil traders are bracing for further price increases as the duration of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz becomes clearer in the coming days.

“I am very concerned; this risk is currently undervalued in the oil markets,” said a senior executive at Vitol, a global commodities trading house. “The prevailing theory is that Iran is first using old missiles and drones to wear out its air defenses. If that is the case, its real response has not even begun in earnest yet,” he told Reuters.

And if the missiles and drones start to wear out, Iran could deploy sea mines. Tehran has an inventory of 5,000 to 6,000 such mines, according to Dryad Global, a maritime risk intelligence company.

They can be anchored to the seabed, launched by rockets or drifting, exploding when a ship comes into contact with them. Analysts point out, however, that for now there are no indications that mines have been placed in the Strait of Hormuz.

“If sea mines are laid, it will take a long time to neutralize them,” said Cormac McCarry, director at Control Risks, which specializes in maritime intelligence and security services. “At that point, we will be talking about months of destruction,” he points out.