Buried in fear. “The escalation of the conflict could stop the arrival of guests from Arab countries”

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could stop the arrival of tourists from Arab countries, Karol Wagner from the Tatra Chamber of Commerce told PAP. In his opinion, however, such a scenario would be the so-called a black swan as the number of holiday bookings increases.

Tourist entrepreneurs from Małopolska are watching the developments in the Middle East with concern, fearing its impact on holiday arrivals of guests from Arab countries. In recent years, they constituted a significant part of visitors to the region, including Zakopane, in the summer season; in some facilities near Giewont, they were responsible for up to 80-90 percent. reservation.

– We bear in mind that if this conflict tends to develop, there is a high probability, bordering on certainty, that the arrival of tourists from Arab countries to Małopolska, including Podhale, will be stopped. However, this would be a so-called scenario. a black swan, i.e. an event that is difficult to predict and may have breakthrough consequences – a representative of the Tatra Chamber of Commerce (TIG) told PAP.

He added that “taking into account the longer term, we are on an upward curve when it comes to tourist bookings from Arab destinations.”

TIG emphasizes that there are no significant declines in bookings for now, although some entrepreneurs are reporting growing concerns.

– We are receiving signals from entrepreneurs who mainly serve Arab tourists. There are entities on the Podhale market in which 80-90 percent summer guests come from this direction. They actually signal concerns about the further development of the situation. For now, however, we are not noticing any measurable declines in bookings and we are calmly monitoring the situation, noted the representative of the Chamber.

He pointed out that not much time had passed since the conflict broke out and there was no “precise tourist data” yet. “We are observing this situation without panic,” he added.

He also admitted that the industry has experience with previous international tensions.

– As the tourism industry, we remember that such violent geopolitical incidents tend to fade away just as quickly. They cause temporary repercussions in air traffic, but similar events have not caused long-term changes so far, he noted.

In his opinion, greater concerns concern the possible long-term effects of the conflict.

– We are wondering about the wide horizon of tourist traffic as a consequence of a long-term conflict or war, which will no longer directly affect air traffic, but may translate into oil and gas prices. A sharp increase in commodity prices may have serious consequences for the economy, inflation and the entire European tourism, he pointed out.

The tourism industry emphasizes that the next weeks will be crucial for assessing the real impact of the international situation on the summer tourist season.

On Saturday morning, Israel and the US launched airstrikes against targets in Iran. It was attacked, among others, the headquarters of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran and Iranian military targets, including nuclear facilities. Iran responded by attacking Israel and American bases in several countries in the region. (PAP)

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