Iran has approx 208 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, which is approximately 12%. world resources. Only countries such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia can boast of larger reserves. This places Tehran among the world's leaders in terms of mining potential.
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Oil has been the foundation of the Iranian economy and the main source of state revenue for decades. Income from the export of raw materials finances a significant part of the country's budget and development programs.
Iran is a giant on the energy market. This is its importance in the oil market
Currently Iran produces approximately 3.3–4.6 million barrels per day (different sources give slightly different numbers depending on whether condensates or just crude oil are counted). However, experts emphasize that the country's technical potential is much higher. If it were not for external restrictions, production could be much higher.
The key factor hindering the development of the oil sector is economic sanctions imposed by the United States and part of the international community. They limit access to modern technologies, capital and international financial markets.
Despite the restrictions, Iran continues exports oil, mainly to Asian countries, including China. Sales often take place in difficult conditions – using intermediaries and alternative methods of transport.
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Iran's importance goes beyond just its raw material resources. The country controls the northern coast on the strategic Strait of Hormuz – a narrow passage that is one of the most important sea routes for transporting crude oil in the world (approx. 20 percent global oil and LNG exports). Any tension in this region has an immediate impact on global energy prices.
US and Israel attack. Oil market in tension. These are the experts' predictions
On Saturday morning, the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran. President Donald Trump announced that US forces are conducting a “massive and sustained operation” against Iran's military. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also spoke about the attack. On Friday, WTI crude oil contracts for April delivery closed at $67.23. per barrel, and Brent contracts – at $72.52.
— The attack was carried out on Saturday, when there are no oil prices. If there were, the reaction would be panic – said Jakub Bogucki, a fuel market analyst from the e-petrol.pl portal, in an interview with the Polish Press Agency. He added that on Monday, oil prices will increase, but it is difficult to assess the scale yet.
Analysts point out that the effects of the conflict may be more serious than in the case of previous attacks, e.g. on Venezuela, because not only Iran's exports are at stake, but also the possibility of paralyzing supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
— On Monday, the market will certainly react with an increase in oil prices, the only question is how much – Bogucki emphasized.
A similar opinion is quoted by PAP, the main analyst of DM BOŚ, Marek Rogalski, who predicts that prices may increase by several percent on Monday, and then the market will analyze further possible scenarios. — The market reaction will depend on whether the conflict is short-term or a long-term crisis. If short-lived, oil price peaks could be reached sooner rather than later – Rogalski explained.
He also added that historically during conflicts, the dollar strengthens and investors look for safe assets, which also affects gold and bonds.
