Experts indicate that currently for petrol and diesel we pay on average 5-6 gr/l more than a week earlier, and for autogas 3 gr/l more. Throughout February, the prices of petrol and diesel oil increased by a total of PLN 10-11/l, while the price of LPG increased by PLN 7/l.
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The forecasts show that in the first week of March, Pb95 gasoline will reach the level of approximately PLN 5.77/l, and Pb98 – PLN 6.52/l (an increase of PLN 4/l). Diesel oil will cost on average PLN 6.07/l, which is 3 groszy more than currently. The price of autogas may increase by 2 groszy to approximately PLN 2.80/l.
Unstable oil price and geopolitics
According to analysts the recent increases are mainly due to the unstable situation on the crude oil market. At the end of the week, the volatility of quotations increased significantly. On Friday, February 27, Brent crude oil contracts for April delivery exceeded $72. per barrel, approaching this year's highs.
Experts explain that the increase in volatility is the result of the market's reaction to the third round of US-Iranian negotiations. Although the scenario of a US military intervention in Iran is receding, it still cannot be completely ruled out, which keeps investors uncertain.
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OPEC decisions in focus
An additional factor influencing prices will be the meeting of OPEC countries participating in voluntary production cuts, scheduled for March 1. The talks are to include, among others: Saudi Arabia, Russia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria.
So far, eight countries have suspended increasing production limits in the first quarter of the year. From April, however, it is possible to return to a gradual increase in production – at a rate of approximately 137,000. barrels per day, similar to the end of last year.
Analysts emphasize that even a temporary stabilization of wholesale prices does not necessarily mean that price increases at gas stations will stop. High volatility of the oil market and geopolitical tensions will continue to affect fuel prices in Poland.
