Sanctions imposed on the Kremlin. How have Russian oil exports changed?

During the four years of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil production in Russia dropped from 9.6 to 9.1 million barrels per day, while discounts for buyers of this raw material increased compared to market prices – emphasized the Polish Economic Institute.

As PIE reminds, within a month of the outbreak of the war, the difference between the price of Brent crude oil and Russian Urals oil increased from $4 to over $30. per barrel. At the beginning of 2026, it was approximately USD 10-11, but – according to PIE – in practice, due to the lack of people willing to buy surplus Russian oil reserves, it is sold with additional discounts, even USD 20. less than Brent prices.

The institute notes that this translates into significant declines in revenues to the Russian budget. While in 2022, revenues from the sale of oil and gas accounted for 7.5%. Russian GDP, in 2025 it was already 4%. GDP.

The Institute reminds that at the outbreak of the war, the European Union was the largest importer of Russian oil, but reduced its share in imports from 44 percent. in 2021 to 7 percent currently, and two countries are responsible for all imports – Slovakia and Hungary, which are against completely abandoning Russian oil.

In the third quarter of 2025, the share of Russian oil and petroleum products in total EU imports was 1.5%. compared to 26 percent in the first quarter of 2022

As PIE emphasizes, the decline in exports to EU countries was partially made up for by the increase in exports to China and India. However, the value of exports to China remains at the level of USD 200 million from mid-2022. per day, the value of exports to India has almost doubled in recent months – from USD 100-120 million. per day in 2025 to approximately USD 60-70 million. in 2026

The decline in India's imports is the result of US pressure, and Indian imports of Russian oil may continue to decline as a result of the announced agreement between India and the US, which is to assume an increase in imports of American raw materials, PIE points out. (PAP)

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