Gen. Hodges: NATO would neutralize the Königsberg region within 24 hours in the event of a Russian attack
In the event of a Russian attack on a NATO country, the Königsberg Oblast would be neutralized within the first 24 hours, and Poland could immediately take part in operations against this exclave, said General Ben Hodges, former commander of US land forces in Europe, in an interview with Die Welt.
Hodges was referring to the outcome of the war game, organized by Die Welt and the Bundeswehr University in Hamburg, in which 16 former high-ranking officials from Germany and NATO, as well as parliamentarians and security experts, took part.
In the adopted scenario Russia occupies Marijampolė in Lithuania, a city of 35,000 inhabitants located on the Suwałki Isthmus, under the pretext of an alleged humanitarian crisis in the Königsberg Oblast. According to the Wall Street Journal, NATO is reacting to decision-making paralysis when Russia takes over this strategic bridgehead.
Gen. Hodges, commenting on the simulation result, said that this is the “absolute worst-case scenario” in which NATO is surprised and is not prepared to quickly transfer troops through the Suwałki Isthmus to Lithuania. “And if we assume that Polish forces will not arrive, then forces should be transferred from Germany or Americans from Poland,” he added.
The former commander of US Army forces in Europe emphasized the importance of military mobility, including access to German rail infrastructure and cargo transport. He pointed out that it is impossible to clear all the tracks overnight to move an armored brigade within 24 hours. At the same time, Hodges expressed his belief that in a crisis situation, German and Polish railways would react quickly.
Hodges emphasized that in the event of an attack, Lithuania would have to be ready to defend itself until support arrives, including: American or German military. However, he added that in the discussed scenario, Lithuania would quickly notice mobilization in Belarus, which would allow it, the German brigade stationed there, American forces and other units in the region to go into a state of heightened readiness.
According to the American general, Russia would not start by sending tanks, but by infiltrating special forces and trying to destabilize the country. In his opinion, other hybrid activities could be carried out in parallel.
“If Russia attacks in any way, the most important thing will be to regain the initiative – not necessarily just at the point of impact. Deterrence means making Moscow realize that it would lose Königsberg very quickly. They need to know that we are ready and capable of doing so,” Hodges said.
In the general's opinion, one can be almost certain that the Königsberg region would be neutralized within the first 24 hours of the conflict. “I do not mean the entry of ground troops, but the use of kinetic and non-kinetic means to neutralize Königsberg as a military factor,” he explained.
As General Hodges added, NATO has very accurate reconnaissance of the situation in the Königsberg region. “We know exactly what capabilities are there – air and naval forces, long-range weapons, air defense and so on. I imagine non-kinetic attacks, i.e. cyber warfare and electronic warfare, to disable as much as possible, especially air defense and long-range weapons, so that the Russian air force or navy cannot operate from there,” he stressed.
According to Hodges, the allies could inflict significant damage in the Königsberg region even without U.S. involvement. “For example, I can imagine that Poland would immediately join the attacks on Königsberg. There are also other places where pressure could be put on Russia, for example the Kola Peninsula in the Russian Far North, near Norway and Finland,” he noted.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in February in Brussels that a possible attempt by Russia to block the so-called the Suwałki Isthmus would be met with a quick and decisive reaction from the Alliance. He emphasized that NATO is a defensive alliance and any attack on its territory would trigger a “lethal” response.
The Suwałki Isthmus is a narrow strip of Polish territory around Suwałki and Augustów, connecting Poland with Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. At the same time, it separates the Königsberg Oblast, which belongs to Russia, from Belarus. (PAP)
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