The oil market under the IEA's microscope. Expected increase in demand and production in 2026
At the same time, world oil production, as indicated by Comparic, recorded a decline of 1.2 million barrels per daywhich resulted from unfavorable weather conditions in North America and export problems in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela.
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According to the IEA, in 2026, global oil production is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day, reaching 108.6 million barrels per day. This increase is to be evenly distributed between the countries belonging to the OPEC+ group and producers outside this agreement. However, this does not solve short-term problems such as current production constraints.
Venezuela, whose production dropped by 210,000 in January. barrels per day to 780 thousand. barrels per day, may soon benefit from Washington's decision. The American administration has approved the possibility of exporting Venezuelan oil by companies registered in the US, which gives a chance to rebound production in this country.
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Market turbulence and raw material prices
Currently, crude oil is declining in value by 0.85%, reaching $69,461. per barrel. It is worth noting, however, that in the last two months the price of the raw material increased by over 12.75%.
This shows that the oil market remains susceptible to changing factors, both supply and demand.
Although forecasts for 2026 point to stabilization, current production and export challenges may result in further price fluctuations.
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In this context, the pace of recovery of production in countries such as Venezuela and the development of the geopolitical situation in oil-exporting regions will be key.
