According to the publication's sources, Russia produced an average of 9.28 million barrels of oil per day in January, which is 46 thousand barrels per day less than the already reduced level in December and almost 300 thousand barrels less than the permitted volume under the agreement with OPEC+ (an association of oil exporting countries that sets production limits to stabilize world prices).
As Bloomberg notes, Russia has classified data on production, exports and the operation of oil refineries, which makes it difficult to independently assess the situation. The Russian Ministry of Energy has not yet commented on production levels and plans for the future.
According to the publication, the reason for the decline is the increase in volumes of Russian oil on tankers, which have not found buyers for a long time due to sanctions and US pressure. Earlier, US President Donald Trump canceled an additional 25% duty for India in exchange for stopping the purchase of Russian oil, Bloomberg notes.
The media reports that by the beginning of February, the accumulated volumes of Russian oil on water reached 143 million barrels – almost twice as much as a year ago, and more than a quarter more than at the end of November. Some of the sanctioned barrels go to China, but it is unknown how much additional volume the Chinese market is ready to absorb.
The article notes that a decrease in production is a risk for the Russian budget, which in 2025 will receive approximately 23% of revenues from oil and gas. In January, oil revenues had already fallen to a “five-year low” due to weak global prices, deep discounts and the strengthening of the ruble, Bloomberg reports.
According to the publication, a prolonged reduction in production could lead to Russia losing its share in the global oil market in favor of its OPEC+ allies. At the same time, the group agreed to maintain stable production levels in the first quarter of 2026 and has not yet decided on a strategy beyond March.
Context
In November 2025, Russian media reported that the Russian Federation was selling oil at the largest discounts since the beginning of the year. After the tightening of sanctions, the main buyers of Russian raw materials – India and China – “are cautious about new agreements.” According to Bloomberg, most Indian refineries have refused oil from the Russian Federation.
In January 2026, ships from the “shadow fleet” of the Russian Federation around the world began to be arrested, expelled from their waters and captured. In particular, tankers associated with Venezuela and its oil are seized by the US military, despite the fact that they change their registration to Russian.
On January 13, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that sanctions pressure from Ukraine and international partners led to the stoppage of at least a fifth of the vessels of the “shadow tanker fleet” of the Russian Federation.
On January 27, Bloomberg reported that India's refusal to purchase Russian oil creates a problem for Moscow with overcrowded ships – some tankers are “stuck” at sea.
