The hunting season has opened

It is no longer about promises, speech or “projects”. It's about who resists. About who understands that, from this point on, it's not about how you look, but how many points you score.

Craiova University, Dinamo and Rapid are, at this moment, beyond the risk zone. They are not mathematically qualified, but they are competitively qualified. They have built up enough, have rhythm and a timetable that allows them to handle the finale without panicking. Their order matters less. The important thing is that they no longer play under the pressure of the play-out. The real battle begins immediately below, for the last 3 play-off places. And here the context is wide.

Since the play-off/play-out system has existed, the minimum score at the end of the regular season achieved by the 6th place was in the 2028-2019 season, Sepsi, 37 points. The maximum score was recorded in the 2021-2022 season by FC Voluntari, 47 points. Average, 42. In a normal season, this would be the qualifying threshold.

But this season is not normal. The ranking is extremely compressed, and the large number of direct matches moves the line up. At the current pace and the remaining schedule, the play-offs will close somewhere between 47 and 49 points, with 50 as a safety zone, regardless of other results. We can witness a historical maximum of points obtained to enter the play-off.

In this context, I anticipate that U Cluj, CFR Cluj and FCSB will complete the Top 6, along with Craiova, Dinamo and Rapid. Not because they don't have weaknesses, but because they have structural advantages: experience, history and the habit of finishing under pressure.

• U Cluj is the epicenter of this season finale. She has the most head-to-head matches against her opponents and, by implication, the most power to influence the rankings. Not only can he enter the play-offs, but he can decide who gets in and who stays out. Five straight matches means maximum risk. Or maximum control.

• CFR Cluj remains an end-of-season team. Even in a transition year, he knows how to play on the edge. She no longer dominates, she no longer scares, but she will be ready for stages 25-30 and knows how to turn ugly matches into points.

• FCSB is the most inconvenient case. The current position forces her to a near-perfect sprint, and the timing is tough. But FCSB remains a regular club with such finals. Recent history shows that he can produce runs just when the pressure becomes unbearable.

• Comparative, FC Arges, Botosani, The steel, lighthouse and Ato they are in a more fragile area. FC Argeș has 40 points, a real asset, but lacks the recent experience of a similar struggle. The steel plays in the next two stages with Craiova and FCSB, matches that can quickly redraw its route. The lighthouse, with two recent titles in its record, is obliged to an immaculate course.

It's an incendiary fight in the play-offs this season, photo: Cristi Preda (GSP.ro)

In this end of the season, no beautiful football is played. Useful football is played. Accepted draws, hard-fought victories, narrowly won matches. Just the kind of context where experience matters more than excitement.

That's why I say hunting season has opened. Not for the title. But for the last play-off places. And in a season where the historical average no longer reaches, those who know how to handle the pressure survive.

To be in the play-offs, you must accumulate between 47 and 50 points. At 47, you're at the limit. With 50, you no longer depend on other results.

The standings of the direct matches for each of the play-off candidates