The talks between Putin and Trump in Alaska: what is really on the table and will it bring closer…

▪️Ceasefire “on the front line”. It is stated that this will be the main case. Yesterday, Washington signaled that there will be no “big deal” without the participation of Kyiv;
▪️Security guarantees for Ukraine (limited format, but with real deliveries and financing), in case of disruption – strengthening of sanctions and aid to Ukraine;
▪️Discussion “large energy framework” not excluded. It is about the joint extraction of useful minerals – the topic is promoted by the Western media as a “big carrot” for the Russian Federation in exchange for the cessation of hostilities;
▪️Humanitarian cases: prisoner exchanges, return of deported children, IAEA/EU access to the nuclear power plant.

What does it mean for Ukraine:

▪️The worst case scenario is “unprofitable exchange of territories”. Currently, Ukraine and European capitals strictly block such a track. The probability is low, but the Kremlin will put pressure on itwrites FT;
▪️base script, reported by FT and Sky News: ceasefire + demarcation line under monitoring, but without legal concessions and with a “payment” in the form of security/armament packages and sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. Risk – blurring of the West's attention, “sanctions fatigue”. Chance – respite for air defense/missile shield restoration, UAV build-up, local operations in the “gray zone”;
▪️Best case scenarioaccording to Politico: ceasefire + phased return of control over critical infrastructure (ZAPP), large-scale exchanges, separate elements of long-term guarantees (air defense/missiles/intelligence), without any border changes. High European involvement is needed.

Pavlo Klimkin, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2014-2019), his forecasts and reflections exclusively for Truh⚡️Ukraine:

▪️“All agreements must be public, and they must be discussed by society… territories temporarily under the influence of the Russian Federation cannot change their legal status”;
▪️“If the negotiations failTrump may even increase aidbut in a paid format”;
▪️“For Putin, these negotiations are the illusion that Ukraine will become part of the Russian Federation”;
▪️“The Europeans must be pulled out of Liturgical fear about the Russian Federation: this war is about a way of life in Europe, which Russia can destroy even without tanks.”

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