US oil prices in January with the highest increase since July 2023

US oil prices are in the red, but are headed to end January with the biggest monthly increase since July 2023. Investors remain concerned about supply disruptions from Iran amid the possibility of US military intervention in that country.

A barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil for March deliveries is down 1.63% on the NYMEX in New York. to $64.34.

The price of Brent on ICE for March falls by 1.3%. to USD 69.79 per barrel.

Brent crude oil prices increased by 15% and WTI by 12%. in January, largely due to uncertainty surrounding speculations about a possible US attack on Iran. Brent prices are on track to achieve the highest monthly increase since January 2022, and WTI prices since July 2023. Brent oil prices rose above USD 70 per barrel in January and are the highest since July.

As Anh Pham, senior analyst at LSEG, said, prices fell after yesterday's increase as expectations of a possible attack on Iran and blocking the Strait of Hormuz did not materialize.

Reuters reported on Friday that, given the growing tensions around Iran, US President Donald Trump said he planned to talk to the country's authorities, and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth assured that the military was ready to implement any of the president's decisions.

“We have a lot of very large, very powerful ships going to Iran right now, and it would be great if we didn't have to use them,” Trump told reporters Thursday in Washington.

Tensions around Iran have increased this week amid the expansion of US military capabilities in the Middle East. Trump on Wednesday called on Iran to sign a nuclear weapons deal or threatened to attack it. Tehran responded by announcing a decisive response to a possible attack.

“Given high inflation and this year's U.S. congressional midterm elections, we do not anticipate long-term disruptions in oil supplies. If military action does occur, we expect it to be limited, bypassing Iran's oil production and export infrastructure,” JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaniewa wrote in a note.

Citi expects the United States and Israel to take limited actions against Iran in the near future, including seizing oil tankers. In their opinion, the probability of such an event is 70%.

JPMorgan analysts said disruptions in Kazakhstan, Russia and Venezuela affected a total of 1.5 million barrels per day of supplies in January, adding that a wave of Arctic cold in the US is estimated to reduce crude oil and condensate production by 340,000. barrels per day this month. (PAP Business)

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