A buyer's market gaining strength? This is not so visible in apartment sales advertisements

The third quarter of 2025 brought a further divergence in offer and transaction prices of apartments on the largest markets in Poland – according to an analysis of data from the National Bank of Poland. Decreases were easier in the case of amounts paid for apartments than in the rates entered in sales advertisements.

Larger differences between transaction and offer prices could traditionally be observed on the secondary market. In the case of second-hand apartments, sellers were also less likely to lower their expectations.

Transaction and offer prices on the secondary market – the difference has increased

Taking into account the seven largest markets (Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice), only Katowice and Łódź saw a lower valuation than three months earlier. In other markets, the average rates entered in advertisements increased – the most in Warsaw – by 3.8%. k/k.

It was easier to obtain reductions in notarial deeds – however, these were less impressive and only in Krakow did they exceed 1.5%. y/y.

Thus – apart from the above-mentioned Katowice and Łódź, there was a further discrepancy between sellers' expectations and the amounts paid for second-hand apartments – from less than 1 percentage point. in Wrocław to over 5 pp. in Warsaw.

The differences between were also greater on an annual basis – from 0.5 pp. in Wrocław, where it has remained below 10 percent for over a year, to 5.5 percentage points. in Warsaw, where in the third quarter of 2025 a growth of 16.4% was recorded.

The sharpest disparity between the average offer price and the transaction price took place in Gdańsk, where for the first time in over five years the difference was over 20%. This was influenced by the still clearly growing (+2.2% q/k and +6.3% y/y) expectations of sellers of second-hand apartments.

However, we must remember that we must take into account the fact that some of the apartments that were put on offer in Q3 2025 were not sold at that time, and therefore were not reflected in the average transaction price for Q3 2025. This was influenced by transactions initiated in Q2 2025.

Either way, the rates increased in 2023 and early 2024 are still unacceptable for a large part of buyers. For a long time we have been writing about sellers lowering prices – both during the search for buyers and price negotiations. According to Metrohouse and Credipass data described by Bankier.pl, Q3 2025 saw an intensification of this phenomenon.

The average differences between the first and final offer prices ranged from over 3%. in Wrocław to over 6.5 percent. in Krakow. In turn, already during negotiations, the price could be reduced by less than 2% on average. in Krakow to nearly 3 percent. in Wrocław and Łódź.

Transaction and offer prices on the primary market

On the primary market, developers' average expectations in Q3 2025 were on average 4%. (Katowice) up to 14 percent (Gdańsk) higher than the amounts actually paid for apartments in this period. For comparison, a year ago differences not exceeding 4% were also recorded in Katowice Kraków, Warsaw and Wrocław

The decline in apartment transaction prices in Q3 2025, coupled with developers being slightly more reserved in reducing the amounts entered in new sales announcements, meant that, as in Q2 2025, we once again witnessed a growing gap between these two indicators.

Similarly to the secondary market and in the case of new apartments, the opposite trend was reported by data for Łódź and Katowice, where the prices in advertisements dropped faster and in the capital of the province. Silesia, only them.

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