Americans are placing bets on Trump's next actions

In recent months, the market for bookmaker bets on the next actions of the administration of US President Donald Trump has grown rapidly – the Washington Post wrote on Wednesday. This market is expected to be worth over USD 200 million, but it raises many concerns.

The value of bets on politics on the Kalshi platform is currently approximately USD 129 million. For political bets on Polymarket, approximately PLN 370,000. people bet a total of over 90 million dollars.

Many bets are placed on possible actions by Trump and his administration. Users can bet, for example, on whether the US will attack Iran in the next six months and who will be appointed as the next president of the US central bank.

Trump's social network Truth Social also intends to enter the prediction market. The services offered there will also include bets on elections, wrote the Washington Post.

“We are democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to tap into the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into an actionable prediction of the future,” Devin Nunes, president and CEO of Trump Media, said in October. Currently, the president's son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor in Polymarket and an advisor to Kalshi.

Although platforms accepting bets on politics have existed for many years, they attracted crowds of interested people for the first time during the American presidential elections in 2024. Billions of dollars were spent on bets then.

However, the American daily warns that the development of forecast markets is also associated with concerns about trading in confidential information, market manipulation and even incentives for people associated with the government to influence betting results.

At the beginning of January, one Polymarket user earned over PLN 400,000. dollars, thanks to a timely bet that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be overthrown. This raised concerns about irregularities.

Following this event, Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced a bill that would prohibit government officials from betting on events over which they have control or confidential information. (PAP)

ek/adj/