2026-01-24 18:00
publication
2026-01-24 18:00
Although US President Donald Trump's main slogan is to make America great again, his actions are unintentionally causing China to become the greatest in terms of global influence, according to a study by the European Council on Foreign Affairs think-tank (ECFR).
The study, which asked almost 26,000 respondents from 21 countries, including Poland, was conducted in connection with the first anniversary of Trump's swearing in for a second term, which fell on Tuesday.
Forecast for the decade: The rise of China
In all countries (the 10 surveyed EU countries were taken together) at least 50 percent respondents believe that Chinese influence will increase over the next decade. The lowest percentage of such responses was in Great Britain – 50 percent, the highest in South Africa – 83 percent. The percentage of people who believe that China's influence will decline ranges from 3%. (Russia) up to 16 percent (India).
In almost all countries, respondents asked about attitude towards China most often chose the answer “a necessary partner”. The highest percentage of people perceiving this country as an ally was in South Africa (37%), the lowest in Great Britain and Ukraine (3% each). In the latter country, most people consider China an enemy – 33%.
When it comes to the United States, few people think its influence will decline, but there is also a much smaller percentage of those who think it will increase. Only in four countries does the share of people who believe that U.S. influence will increase exceed 50 percent, with the highest percentage in Brazil (72 percent). The lowest is in Russia – 20%. In Brazil, there are also the fewest people who predict that US influence will decline (8%), and the most people predicting a decline in US influence are in the United States itself – 26%.
Also, the United States, like China, is most often seen as a “necessary partner”. India is the only country where the percentage of people who consider the US as an ally exceeds 50%. (54%). At the opposite extreme is Russia, where only 2% consider the US to be an ally. asked. Russia also has the highest percentage of those who see the US as an enemy (37%).
India is an exception on the alliance map
He points out that India is also one country where the percentage of people who consider the US an ally has increased over the past year. In the remaining countries, it either did not change or decreased, and in some cases these declines are significant and significant – in Great Britain from 37 to 25 percent, in Ukraine from 27 to 18 percent, and in 10 EU countries from 21 to 16 percent.
In almost all countries surveyed, expectations of the Trump presidency – whether it will be good for the US, for the respondents' country and for world peace – have fallen over the past year – or fears that it will be bad have deepened. For example, in India, the difference between those who hoped that this presidency would be good for their country over those who believed the opposite fell from +79 to +32, in Ukraine from +6 to -30, and in Switzerland from -12 to -48.
US society is still pro-European
Trump's reorientation of US foreign policy is not reflected in Americans' opinions. 40 percent Americans consider the EU to be an ally, 49 percent subscribes to the opinion that the security of Europe is also the security of the USA, while 29% are of the opposite opinion. In turn, 54 percent considers Russia's war against Ukraine a threat to the US. (PAP)
bjn/ zm/
