Before the talks in Abu Dhabi, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that the Ukrainian army should withdraw from Donbas. As Kacper Sienicki explains, this would mean transferring about 20 percent to Russia. Donetsk Oblast, including the strategically important Slavic-Kramator agglomeration. Luhansk Oblast and most of Donbas are now almost completely under Moscow's control.
The rest of the article is below the video:
Read also: The European Commission is also helping Ukraine. The amount will reach EUR 3.7 million
— Taking over these areas would allow Putin to declare success, although it would only be a minimum plan, Sienicki estimates. The expert reminds that after the failure of the Russian offensive on Kiev in 2022, Donbas became the main target of the Kremlin's military activities.
Russian conquests and Ukrainian defense line
According to Sienicki's analysis, Russia currently controls approximately 70 percent. Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts, the entire Luhansk oblast, 80 percent Donetsk Oblast and small fragments of Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Sumy Oblasts. Conquering the rest of Donbas would increase Russia's territorial gains to 20 percent. area of Ukraine, including Crimea.
However, as the OSW expert emphasizes, these territories are key to Ukraine's defense. The main Ukrainian fortifications are located there, protecting the Slavic-Kramator agglomeration and stopping the Russians from further marching into the country. — This is Ukraine's main defense line, where the heaviest fighting takes place. Losing it would be a huge blow, notes Sienicki.
Kremlin's proposals and potential consequences
Sienicki indicates that Russia may try to force Ukraine to agree to the creation of a demilitarized zone that would be supervised by third countries. The Kremlin is also presenting the Americans with the possibility of a ceasefire along the current front line in the Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts as an alleged gesture of goodwill. However, the expert warns that giving Russia some territories without a fight could cause serious tensions in Ukrainian society.
— The soldiers fighting on the front would not accept such a concession – says Sienicki. He adds that the war has been going on longer than the so-called the Great Patriotic War, and the Russians have still not managed to take over the entire Donbas, where fighting has been going on since 2014.
A war of attrition and high costs for Russia
According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are moving in Donbas at an extremely slow pace. An example is the 22-month operation of moving only 32 km from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk. At the current rate, it could take another two or three years to capture the rest of the Donetsk Oblast.
Russia suffers huge losses. Sienicki estimates that the army loses approximately 400,000 soldiers each year. soldiers – killed or seriously wounded. — Taking over Donbas would allow the Kremlin to justify these sacrifices to its citizens and could give the economy some respite thanks to the possible easing of sanctions, the expert notes.
At the same time, Sienicki warns that Putin may still believe in the final collapse of Ukraine, which is part of the strategy of a war of attrition. — For the Kremlin, the goal remains to destroy Ukraine as a state. So he is trying to gain time without antagonizing the West, sums up the OSW analyst.
