Gold bars (illustrative image), PHOTO: Martin Ruetschi / Keystone-SDA-ATS AG / Profimedia Images
Gold confirms its role as an absolute refuge in a period of intense turmoil in the global economic and political landscape.
After an impressive growth of more than 70% in the last 12 months and consecutive historical highs, the big investment banks are raising the bar even higher for 2026, writes the Greek press.
Goldman Sachs: Revises $5,400 an ounce
Goldman Sachs revised upwards its gold price forecast at the end of 2026, raising the target to $5,400 an ounce from $4,900 previously.
The upgrade, above 10%, is based on the assessment that demand from private investors will remain strong and “stable” as it is linked to long-term macroeconomic and fiscal risks and not isolated events.
The bank's analysts point out that central bank purchases will reach an average of 60 tonnes per month in 2026 as emerging economies continue to structurally diversify their reserves.
Western gold ETFs have gained about 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, beating initial estimates.
Risks to the outlook are “significantly tilted to the upside” as uncertainty over international fiscal and monetary policy encourages further positioning.
In the same context, Donald Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve have shaken confidence in the independence of the US central bank, strengthening the reorientation of capital towards gold.
UBS: We'll see gold at $5,000 'within months'
UBS is equally bullish, estimating that despite strong growth, prices still have room to rise. The Swiss group expects gold to approach $5,000 an ounce in the coming months, based on the resurgence of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and around important points in global trade (such as the Strait of Hormuz).
Against the backdrop of institutional and political uncertainty in the US, with open fronts around monetary policy, tariff threats and political developments ahead of electoral contests.
The fact that gold acts as a preferred hedging instrument compared to other commodities such as oil, on which the market is reluctant to impose a strong risk premium.
UBS also points out that despite some easing in inflation, pressures remain high enough to keep real yields low, particularly in an environment of further monetary easing. This reinforces the appeal of gold, which does not earn interest but protects against inflation and counterparty risk.
The common conclusion
Despite individual differences in time horizons, the message from the two banks is clear: gold remains a key “bet” for 2026. With central banks, institutional and private investors continuing to place their positions and global uncertainty lingering, forecasts for levels up to $5,400 indicate that the rally may not yet have its final say.
