Bankers look to 2026 with great hope, it will be the first full year of rebuilding loan demand, but the environment of lower interest rates and higher CIT will result in a decline in the sector's profit by 33%. Legal risk will still remain an important element of uncertainty – Tadeusz Białek, president of the Polish Bank Association, told PAP Biznes.
“In 2026, the banking sector in Poland will remain stable and competitive, but the biggest challenge will be maintaining the capital capacity to finance the economy's investments at the simultaneous costs of legal risk, faulty structure of the bank tax, growing tax burdens and a high share of public debt in banks' balance sheets,” Tadeusz Białek, president of the Polish Bank Association, told PAP Biznes.
“As bankers, we look at 2026 with great hope, both through the prism of good forecasts for Poland, additional funds from KPO and the related increase in the investment appetite of companies. We also count on greater activity of Poles on the credit market, especially mortgage loans, as a result of increased creditworthiness,” he added.
The sector will generate PLN 45 billion in profit
According to ZBP estimates, in 2025 the sector will generate approximately PLN 44-45 billion in profit, and in 2026, the sector's net result will drop to PLN 27-34 billion, with the base scenario at PLN 30.8 billion (y-o-y decline by approx. 33%). According to estimates, the sector's ROE will drop from approx. 15-16 percent. up to 8.5–11 percent (base: 9.8%), and after three years the return on capital will be lower than the cost of capital again.
“This year, the banking sector is entering the normalization phase after a period of high rates, but with a simultaneous strong increase in fiscal burdens. The decline in results expected in 2026 and subsequent years will be the result not only of decisions resulting from monetary policy (interest rates), but also, unfortunately, fiscal decisions (unconstitutionally increased CIT only for banks), which will limit the sector's ability to finance investments and economic growth,” Białek said.
The president said that the main reason for the decline in the sector's results in 2026 will be the reduction in interest rates and this effect will be significant. However, he pointed out that a significant part of banks' interest income comes from treasury bonds and other debt securities (approx. 38%) and loansincluding those with a periodically fixed rate, which currently constitute nearly 40 percent. share in the housing loan portfolio.
“Thanks to this, in 2026, banks will still use the 'high-coupon portfolio' from 2022-2024, which will mitigate the decline in interest income, but only temporarily,” said the president.
“Generally, we expect that this year will be a continuation of the decline in interest rates, although certainly not at the same rate as we observed in the second half of 2025,” he added.
Increasing tax burdens related to corporate income tax
He pointed out that in 2026, sudden tax burdens related to corporate income tax will also have a negative impact on the sector's result. In 2026, CIT revenues to the budget are expected to increase by PLN 9.7 billion, and approximately PLN 6.8 billion of this amount will be paid by banks.
“This means that 25% of the total CIT in Poland will be paid by the banking sector. The effective rate of fiscal burden on the sector will increase from approximately 32% in 2025 to approximately 46-47% in 2026. The decline in profits in 2026 will be deepened by fiscal decisions,” Białek said.
The Polish Bank Association predicts that the interest result at the end of 2026 will amount to PLN 94.7 billion (in the base scenario), which means that the interest income will be 12.5% lower year-on-year.
Since May 2025, interest rates have fallen a total of 175 basis points. According to ZBP calculations, this means that the mortgage installment is PLN 450,000. PLN for 20 years decreased by approximately PLN 500 per month (12.7%), and such a loan (in total – over the entire life cycle) became 26% lower. cheaper than with rates at 5.75%.
The president estimated that thanks to the reductions so far, the creditworthiness of households has increased by approximately 15%. and the profitability of investments financed by credit improved significantly.
“The reduction in interest rates directly affects the creditworthiness of both Poles and companies. This was very clearly visible in the last months of last year in the case of mortgage loans,” Białek said.
He added that the effect of interest rate cuts on the increase in loan demand does not work immediately because companies' investment decisions are delayed and households need several quarters of stability.
According to Białek, in 2026 a significant increase in demand for loans should be expected, primarily in the segment of housing loans, investment loans for companies and loans for SMEs.
The president noted that the supply of housing loans in 2025 was uneven. While in the first months of 2025 (at higher interest rates), the monthly supply of loans was around PLN 6-7 billion, in the second half of the year it was already approximately PLN 9-10 billion per month.
“Maintaining such a supply of housing loans in 2026 with falling interest rates, rising wages, and a good situation on the labor market may result in the annual supply of housing loans reaching levels of PLN 115-120 billion per year in 2026,” Białek said.
He said that most macroeconomic analyzes indicate an expected high increase in the level of investment in 2026, but this effect will be short-lived because already in 2027 the level of investment in the economy may decline again. In his opinion, the increase in consumption will also translate into an increase in demand for financing current operations and, as a result, the demand for working capital loans will increase.
“2026 will be the first full year of rebuilding demand for credit in Poland. The banking sector has capital and liquidity to finance economic growth. The key risk is not the stability of banks, but whether regulatory and tax conditions will stifle lending at a time when the economy needs it the most,” Białek said.
The equity of the banking sector at the end of November 2025 amounted to PLN 317.3 billion, which means that on a y-o-y basis it increased by PLN 32.3 billion (i.e. 11.3% y-o-y).
“The sector has a large capital surplus and real space for growth in lending. Currently, the banking sector has the potential to increase the loan portfolio by PLN 461 billion. This is the result of operating in an environment of higher interest rates in recent years and prudent management of the generated financial results,” said Białek.
He pointed out that in the context of large infrastructure projects, the ability of the banking sector to finance these projects remains a challenge.
“This is the result of the fact that we have a small banking sector and we have large infrastructure projects ahead of us. The construction of a nuclear power plant costs approximately PLN 192 billion. Banks – in a maximum consortium arrangement – are able to finance this investment at the level of approximately 34 percent. The construction of the CPK (currently Port Polska) costs PLN 132 billion – it can be financed by banks at the level of approximately 49 percent. This is the result of too low capital in relation to the needs of our economy.” – said the president.
He assessed that the sector's capital, when it comes to financing, especially such really important, large infrastructure projects, is relatively too small.
“The banking sector is responsible for 81% of external financing of enterprises. We have no alternative to the banking sector. The real size of our capital market is more than twice smaller than in Spain or Germany and four times smaller than in France. Our capital market in real terms is also smaller than the Greek, Cypriot or Portuguese markets,” said Białek.
The president pointed out that Poland today has one of the lowest levels of lending in the EU. In 2025, the active loan portfolio for the non-financial sector amounted to approximately 31%. GDP, and without systemic changes it may fall to approximately 30% in 2027.
He assessed that this is not the result of a lack of capital in banks, but of low investment demand by companies, high interest rates, systematic marginalization of the role of the banking sector, the state taking on the role of an investor (rather than an investment animator) and regulatory and tax burdens, including the banking tax formula that penalizes credit activity.
The President said that the total costs of legal risk of foreign currency loans are estimated by the NBP at PLN 102 billion, while the current level of provisions is approximately PLN 60 billion. The National Bank of Poland indicates that the additional costs of required provisions for the legal risk of foreign currency loans amount to approximately PLN 30 billion.
Bankers estimate that the costs of legal risk of foreign currency loans will amount to PLN 6-8 billion this year and will continue to significantly limit the sector's ability to generate capital and finance the economy.
“In practice, this means lower legal risk costs in banks' income statements in 2026 than previously observed, although they still cannot be eliminated completely. Legal risk will still remain an important element of uncertainty,” Białek said.
He added that “unfair practices on the part of compensation law firms based on questioning PLN loans (WIBOR) on the basis of false allegations regarding WIBOR, which have not yet been legally confirmed by any court and SKD, consisting mainly in purchasing receivables for a fraction of the price from the consumer and then pursuing the entire claim in the name and on behalf of the law firm itself” generate risk for banks in the following years. In his opinion, the compensation law firm market requires additional regulations.
He assessed that legal uncertainty was beginning to shift towards the PLN loan portfolio, including: under the influence of the actions of compensation offices and potential court disputes.
“This means that although the risk associated with foreign currency loans is decreasing, new sources of risk may appear in the case of loans in PLN,” Białek said.
The President assessed that the Polish banking market is one of the most competitive in Europe. The share of the five largest banks in the sector's assets is approximately 50 percent, which means much greater competition than in many EU countries, where concentration exceeds 70-80 percent. According to him, price and quality competition in Poland is among the highest in the EU.
In his opinion, in conditions of falling interest rates, competition accelerates the decline in the cost of credit for households and companies.
He assessed that ownership changes in the sector do not reduce competition, on the contrary – the entry of new investors increases competitive pressure, improves efficiency and raises management standards and the offer.
“The interest of foreign investors confirms the attractiveness of Poland and strengthens the sector's ability to finance the economy. For customers, this means cheaper loans, a better offer and greater access to financing, and for the country – faster growth and more investments,” Białek said.
“I don't expect that we will deal with any further mergers in the banking sector on the Polish market,” he added.
Sebastian Karbarczyk (PAP Biznes)
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