Trump's plan is not just about Greenland. “Poland would feel the consequences”

Oesthagen admitted that Greenland has potentially interesting raw material deposits, but many of them are not suitable for exploitation, and where mining is possible, clearly defined procedures apply. According to him, the Americans can exploit the deposits – on preferential terms – through their own companies and capital, without having to take the island away from the Danes.

— The American president's arguments make no sense. The United States does not need political control over Greenland to gain access to raw materials, and the minerals argument does not justify the risk of destabilizing relations with European allies or NATO

– comments Oesthagen.

According to President Trump, Greenland would be crucial in containing Russian and Chinese forces “scattered throughout the Arctic.”

— Except that Russian and Chinese ships and warships operate primarily off the coast of Alaska or in the European Arctic, not around Greenland. Existing agreements, cooperation mechanisms and the military presence of Denmark, the US and allies already ensure control over the security situation in the region

– emphasizes the FNI expert.

Trump's plan is not just about Greenland. “Poland would feel the consequences”

The key thread – according to Oesthagen – is Trump's undermining of the guarantees that Washington provided to Copenhagen. As part of the agreements of the early 20th century, the United States fully confirmed Danish sovereignty over Greenland.

— Such logic would mean abandoning the principles of international law and creating a precedent in which only force counts. In a similar way, Russia could question the basis of Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard, a the consequences of such an approach would also be felt by other European countries, including Poland

– warns the expert.

Oesthagen also points out that Contrary to official arguments, the dispute over Greenland actually concerns control over the Western Hemisphere and fits into the logic of spheres of influence.. In his opinion, this is it part of a broader turn in superpower politicswhere international law and alliance relations give way to competition for domination and political legacy.

Denmark may be forced to make concessions to the US

Despite the lack of a rational basis for Trump's demands, Denmark – according to Oesthagen – may be forced to make concessions to the US. The most likely are agreements on the exploitation of raw materials and further tightening of defense cooperation.

— However, the red line for Copenhagen remains the loss of sovereignty over Greenland, which would mean the collapse of the Kingdom of Denmark and would be contrary to the interests of the Greenlanders themselves

– sums up the Norwegian expert.