The best insight into American foreign policy before the Trump era comes from the 1978 Hollywood hit ” Spider-Man. In it, the young hero hears an important sentence from his uncle: “with great power comes great responsibility.” This has been the pattern for Americans for a generation – apart from the senseless wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Basically, the USA combined its own interests with the interests of its allies, protégés, and international institutions. But that's a thing of the past.
For Trump, Ukraine is just a bargaining chip in the power game with Europe. It recently attacked Venezuela. Now he wants to take over Greenland, and soon Cuba and even Colombia. His motto is: you lose, I win.
The old good shepherd turns into a rampaging Rumplestiltskin [złowrogiego karła z popularnej baśni braci Grimm]. He also went completely crazy in the end. However, Trump is not a case requiring mental health care. What drives him? This is well demonstrated by “The Godfather”, the Oscar-winning classic about the mafia.
Young Michael Corleone (played by Al Pacino) tells a story of sorts to his wife.
— My father (Marlon Brando) made him an offer he couldn't refuse.
– What?
— He put a gun to his head and assured him that either his brain or his signature would be on the contract.
In short: comply or I will lose control – your death is as indifferent to me as being accused of murder. Behind this is what strategists call the “rationality of irrationality” – if you don't do what I want, I will lose control of myself. In this strategy, a seemingly mad person only pretends to be mad. And the terrified opponent falls to his knees.
Trump certainly does not require hospitalization in a mental hospital. He is a highly intelligent poker player who coolly scores points even with a weak deck of cards. Because the mere threat of violence brings more than violence. What distinguishes him from the high-stakes gamblers of the 20th century? “Trumpinator” prefers to attack weaker people, such as Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump knows what the Ukrainian president also knows – that without the US, Ukraine will disappear into Putin's mouth. The little ones must do what the Big One wants.
First of all, profit
Zelensky no longer receives weapons from the US, but he needs important data from the US space observation system. Ukraine receives the missiles as part of a trilateral transaction. The US provides Patriot batteries, and the Europeans pay and give them to Kiev. Good deal. Politically, Patriot systems are not as provocative as surface-to-surface missiles, which can reach as far as Russia when launched from Ukraine. Even Europeans do not provide such equipment to Kiev. And Trump is making money off of it all. European purchases of Patriot systems bring billions of dollars to American coffers.
And speaking of money, what is the war in Ukraine about? Europeans fear hard Russian power that may turn against them. If Moscow takes over Ukraine, its divisions will stand on Poland's eastern border. Then the three Baltic countries will be in the crosshairs – they were part of the Soviet empire, which Putin wants to resurrect since 2008. Putin wants to resurrect.
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For Europe, Ukraine is a strategic lifeline from Putin. For Trump, he is a pawn that he uses in various ways to subordinate Putin to US geopolitical goals and establish spheres of influence. And according to him, these can be simple: Europe for you, South America for me. A nightmare for US allies. But first, billions for Trump. He is tempted by Ukraine's vast natural resources and the fabulous profits for American investors from its reconstruction – if peace ever comes.
London and Paris want to send troops there after the end of the war – perhaps Berlin will do the same – although Chancellor Merz is taking precautions by declaring that he will deploy German troops “after the ceasefire in neighboring NATO territory.” These are all pipe dreams.
Why should Putin be satisfied with already annexed territories if he does not have to fear the US, the number one power in the world? British Prime Minister Keir Starmer does not hide his skepticism about Trump's plan. “We can only reach a peace agreement if Putin is ready to compromise,” he said. However, the Russian president by no means shows that he is “ready for peace.” A ceasefire is only a pause that gives the aggressors a springboard for another offensive.
Fake aggression
Let's return to Trump's other intrigues, in which he imitates The Godfather from the cult film trilogy. Take the example of Copenhagen, a loyal NATO member. Trump wants Greenland, 50 times the size of Denmark. The US has had a military base there since 1951. According to the agreement, it can build bases on the entire island and control air and sea routes to stop the influence of Russia and China. Now, however, Trump wants to buy or take over it. And this, according to the Danish Prime Minister, would mean “the end of NATO”.
What of it? Already during his first term, Trump ridiculed the alliance, calling it “obsolete.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt even mentioned a “military option.” “No one will go to war (against us) because of Greenland,” said Stephen Miller, Donald Trump's deputy chief of staff. And indeed, Europeans are protesting against the actions of the US president, but very restrained.
Together with the UK, they have the second-largest GDP in the world and a larger population than Russia and the US. Except that Clausewitz no longer lives on this continent, and war is no longer a “continuation of politics” with a twist of lead. Theoretically, the Bundeswehr consists of 180,000 people. soldiers, but only one fifth of them are trained and equipped for combat. Although Europeans are increasing their military budgets, they are still far from having a fighting force that would command respect.
Military weakness is not Europe's only problem. Despite all the important appeals and declarations, it will not create unified armed forces so quickly for political reasons. Moreover, geography plays an important role. A look at the map shows that the closer a country is to war-torn Ukraine, the stronger its desire to strengthen its defenses – just look at Poland, the Baltic states and Finland. Countries located further away, such as Spain or Portugal, are not so willing to strengthen their armed forces. In addition, there are countries friendly to Russia, such as Hungary.
Europe can and should be a bit more bold towards the US. Not like Trump, who makes arguments of military force, but hitting where it will hurt the most economically: tariffs and all kinds of trade barriers. Businessmen react most strongly to such actions. Whoever, like Trump, is guided primarily by profit is afraid of losses. Look at Italy, which managed to lift Trump's murderous tariff barriers on pasta. As the world's third-largest economy, Germany could show strength.
Trump only appears to be a brawler. Aggression is his tool of action, but he withdraws when he encounters credible resistance. The problem is that Macron, Merz and Starmer are not yet prepared to engage in a psychological battle in which will prevails over weapons.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
