Fuel prices in January 2026. Gasoline and diesel are much more expensive in retail than in refineries
publication
2026-01-09 10:55
Gasoline and diesel prices have still not adjusted to the much lower refinery rates and have declined very slowly at the turn of the year. The result is that the margins of gas station operators remain above average.
There has been a scandalous situation on the Polish fuel market for a month now, with prices of gasoline and diesel fuel at stations significantly different from the rates applicable in refineries. And despite further cosmetic reductions in retail fuel prices at the beginning of 2026, this situation has not changed.
In the first full week of January, Pb95 petrol at Polish stations cost on average PLN 5.70/l and was only PLN 3/l cheaper than at the end of the year – according to BM Reflex data. Diesel fuel was filled at an average price of PLN 5.99/l, which is PLN 4/l less than a week ago. The average retail price of autogas increased by four groszy per liter, reaching PLN 2.72/l.
Although this was already the eighth (in the case of Pb95 gasoline) and sixth (in the case of diesel) weeks of decline in average retail fuel prices in Poland, they still remain outrageously high in relation to what we have been observing in refineries for several weeks. This situation on the Polish market has been ongoing since the beginning of December, as mentioned two weeks ago, three and four weeks ago.
What's going on on the Polish fuel market?
On January 9, Orlen offered Eurosuper 95 gasoline at PLN 4,211/m3, which after adding 23% VAT (excise duty, fuel surcharge and other para-taxes are already included in the wholesale price) gives approximately PLN 5.18/l. A dozen or so days ago, wholesale gasoline cost as much as PLN 5.13/l, which was the lowest rate since June 2021.
Meanwhile, the same fuel is filled in retail stores at an average price of PLN 5.70/l, which is as much as PLN 52/l more expensive than in the refinery. This implied retail margin is more than twice the average for 2005-25. This means that under normal market conditions, Pb95 should not cost more than approximately PLN 5.45/l.
An identical situation occurs in the case of diesel oil, which in the Friday price list of the Płock refinery was valued at PLN 4,416/m3, which after vating gives PLN 5.43/l. That is 56 gr/l less than the retail average. Meanwhile, in the case of diesel fuel, the average historical retail margin was PLN 21/l. The current one is over two and a half times higher.
It is worth adding in this context that stock exchange prices of ready-made fuels are close to the lowest levels in 5 years. A gallon of gas is priced at approximately $1.76 on New York's Nymex. And just a few days ago it was even less than USD 1.70 and the lowest since February 2021. The same applies to diesel oil, which costs USD 619/t on the London ICE. The last time prices below USD 600/t were consistently observed was in 2021.
Finally, as usual, let us add that unnaturally increased retail margins are nothing compared to what the authorities do to drivers. From every liter of gasoline or diesel oil purchased, over 50% goes to the state. Without paying tribute to the government, we could fill up with Pb95 petrol for approximately PLN 2.40/l, diesel for approximately PLN 2.65/l, and autogas for approximately PLN 1.65/l. The difference between the pylon rates and the above prices goes to the state treasury.
