Crisis in Venezuela. The gold market reacted “by book” and experts point to new price thresholds

Further geopolitical concerns and uncertainty about the future of raw material supply may strengthen the demand for gold as a safe haven for investors, analysts point out. They noted that the biggest beneficiary of geopolitical risk is currently silver.

According to XTB financial markets analyst Aleksander Jabłoński, the escalation of tensions between Venezuela and the US since December has led to the flow of capital towards assets perceived as safe havens, and thus to increases in the dollar, American bonds and precious metals.

In his opinion, despite record volatility in the last week of 2025 and noticeable downward pressure, key precious metals reacted “by the book” to the sudden increase in geopolitical risk.

According to Jabłoński, the biggest beneficiary of this situation is currently silver, which at approx. 13 gained 3.15% on Monday and its price rose to $74.90. per ounce. Jabłoński pointed out that palladium (+2.9%), platinum (+2.75%) and gold (+2% to $4,420 per ounce) gained slightly less.

While on paper gold is at the bottom of the pack, the durability of the precious metal's growth should be greater than in the case of platinum and palladium, whose valuations depend more on their use in industry and jewelry than on investors' pure attitude to risk, the analyst said. He estimated that in the short term, gold may return “to the peak reached last week at $4,540 per ounce”, especially if the White House continues its “aggressive narrative” towards potentially further interventions in Latin America or Greenland.

Jabłoński pointed out that in Monday's interview, Donald Trump threatened the new leader of Venezuela, Delca Rodriguez, that she would “pay a greater price than Maduro if she does not do the right thing.” “Therefore, further escalation would help gold cross the next milestone of $4,600. per ounce“- he added.

In the analyst's opinion, in the absence of further military escalation or repercussions against Rodriguez, “the geopolitical fuel of growth should burn out quite quickly and draw the markets' attention to such fundamentals” as the decline in the pace of gold purchases by central banks around the world, opening the way to another test of support at $4,300. per ounce.

Jabłoński believes that record valuations of the precious metal significantly increase the book value of central banks' strategic reserves. “For emerging economies, this constitutes an additional security buffer in the face of destabilization in the Latin American region“- he assessed.

Silver does not have a backbone of central bank purchases

He pointed out that, unlike gold, “silver does not have the basis of central bank purchases”, so with the record low ratio of gold to silver prices, this metal “may regress” by as much as 6-7%. to the psychological level of $70. per ounce.

“However, platinum will be under the greatest pressure. The volatility of the commodity last week significantly exceeded that observed in gold or silverso the scope of the correction in the event of a decline in risk aversion remains the most difficult to estimate, especially considering the fact that the recent increases in platinum mainly reflected the broad sentiment on precious metals, and not the fundamentals that play to its detriment in the medium term,” Jabłoński said. The analyst mentioned a factor such as the projected end of the platinum deficit in 2026.

“The closest support is the level of USD 2,040 (approx. -6.8% compared to the current USD 2,192), although the scope of the latest correction (i.e. the sell-off on December 31) reaches up to USD 1,920.” – said the analyst, referring to platinum prices.

The US intervention in Venezuela shook the markets

“The weekend US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro triggered a clear reaction from the financial markets, especially the precious metals market. On Monday, gold gained in value again and reached levels above $4,420-4,430 per ounce, rebounding by several percent in the Asian session as a result of increased demand for safe assets,” said Michał Tekliński, a gold market expert from Goldsaver and Goldenmark, a distributor of precious metals.

In his opinion, this is a typical reaction of investors in the face of a sudden escalation of geopolitical risk. He noted that when risk appetite decreases, capital flees to instruments considered stable, and gold has served this function for centuries. “The first quarter of each year is traditionally good for the gold rate, and 2026 starts on a really strong note,” Tekliński said.

He added that investors treat gold as a real protection of capital in the face of unpredictable political events.

As Tekliński said, “in the short term” this may mean greater volatility in gold prices, but from the fundamentals point of view, this event only confirms that the metal remains one of the safest havens.

In the longer term, further geopolitical concerns and uncertainty about the future of raw material supply may additionally strengthen the demand for gold as a protective instrument, the expert believes.

He reminded that the current market reaction is part of a very strong trend that we have observed throughout 2025. “Gold gained approximately 64% last year, recording the best annual result since 1979. The impulse was primarily the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, record purchases by central banks and the growing interest in gold-based ETFs,” Tekliński pointed out.

In his opinion, the market is still counting on further signals of monetary policy easing in the US, and investors expect at least two further interest rate cuts this year, which helps maintain demand for precious metals.

“2025 was equally impressive for other metals. Silver increased by as much as 147%, benefiting from the status of a critical mineral in the USA, continuing supply deficits and growing investment and industrial demand,” the expert pointed out.

DM BOŚ analyst Marek Rogalski also believes that gold prices are going up more because “the market has received excuses in the form of increased geopolitical tensions.”

“However, the metal is recovering from the last depreciation before New Year's Eve and it is not certain that this is a return to the upward trend. The risk of stopping around the levels of the recent maximums at USD 4,580 in the following days (futures) is high if the dollar's appreciation continues – usually these markets go in opposite directions,” says Rogalski. (PAP)

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