The global economy begins 2026 facing a harsh reality: we live in extremely uncertain times. The global economy is going through a period of increased uncertainty due to significant changes taking place in many countries, including trade, digital currencies, migration and spending priorities, including security and foreign aid. Getting through this stage safely will require the strength and credibility of key national economic institutions, necessary to conduct effective and credible policy. The current situation requires actions to build trust, resilience and protect macroeconomic and financial stability.
Europe is entering 2026 at a turning point. Our latest Regional Economic Outlook publication shows that economic recovery is uneven across developed and emerging economies. It also draws attention to weak public sector finances, persistent price pressure and mediocre growth prospects in the medium term. In the short term, we recommend focusing on macroeconomic policies that ensure price stability, initiating fiscal consolidation and maintaining trade openness. Looking ahead, the key message is that sustainable growth in Europe requires overcoming the dangerous drift in structural reforms. Recognizing the urgency of change must translate into decisive action. At EU level, the priorities are to reverse the fragmentation of the single market, unlock high-risk investments, increase the supply of European public goods and maximize the benefits of urbanization. At the national level, increasing productivity requires reducing regulation, creating an environment conducive to innovation and ensuring labor mobility.
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IMF recommendations for Poland
Poland stands out as one of the fastest growing economies in Europe, where inflation is currently within the range of permissible deviations from the central bank's target. High economic growth and low inflation give the impression of an ideal economic situation. However, there is a worrying imbalance beneath the surface: Poland's budget deficit is the second largest in Europe and public debt is growing rapidly. Moreover, an aging population, low investments and limited innovations threaten the process of Poland's convergence with the global leadership. In the face of strong political polarization and high global uncertainty, negative risks to economic growth prevail. The most serious of these would be an unexpected weakening of growth, which could sharply change the perception of the stability of Polish public finances. The key external risks include deterioration of security in the region and further restrictions on global trade. Poland's strong foundations – high reserves, a flexible exchange rate and a healthy banking system – constitute safety buffers. However, they will not replace decisive economic policy actions.
IMF recommendations for Poland are as follows:
- Stabilizing public debt through credible fiscal consolidation, based on high-quality actions and a strengthened fiscal policy framework.
- Ensuring that inflation is permanently anchored in the middle of the target range by slowing down the pace of any further easing of monetary policy.
- Reducing disruptions and legal risks that limit lending, while maintaining financial stability.
- Progress on structural reforms – both national and at EU level – to increase innovation, deepen capital markets, support labor productivity and improve energy competitiveness.
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Poland must adopt a strategy of adaptability and resilience
The choice is clear: act decisively now or risk a future of slower economic growth, higher public debt and lower competitiveness. In a world prone to shocks and in conditions of increased uncertainty, Poland must adopt a strategy of adaptability and resilience. Only by solving the problem of fiscal imbalance and implementing deep structural reforms (including at the EU level) can Poland maintain its current growth trajectory and get closer to the most developed European economies in the medium term.
