Article by Luminița Paul – Published on Saturday, 03 January 2026, 17:05 / Updated on Saturday, 03 January 2026 17:06
Vincenzo Nibali (41), winner of the Tour de France, Italy and Spain in his career, analyzes the chances of Tadej Pogacar (27) to impose himself in a monumental race that he has set as his goal for 2026.
Pure strength is Tadej Pogacar's main asset and more than enough to dominate almost any competition on a season's calendar, he believes Vincenzo Nibalithe one who conquered Tour de France in 2014, Tour of Italy in 2013, 2016 and Tour of Spain in 2010.
The Italian, now 41, has also won prestigious one-day races, including Milan-San Remo, which the Slovenian has put on his 2026 target list, alongside Paris-Robaix. “If I win these there's not much I can do“, emphasized Pogacar.
Nibali highlighted in a conversation with Bici.Pro the contrast between the Slovenian's devastating physical dominance and Mathieu Van der Poel's (30-year-old) ability to break away thanks to timing, positioning and tactics. “Any race is won by Pogacar by force, not tactics” said the Italian. “He attacks because he is stronger. But who wins with cunning and tactics? Van der Poel!“, he pointed out.
Vincenzo Nibali: “He thinks he can manage everything by force”
Vincenzo Nibali at the Tour of Lombardy 2025 Photo: Imago Images
He sees Pogacar as an exception, a roadster capable of running a race on his own terms. However, he warns, even this quality has its limits. “He has a remarkable explosiveness, then he settles into his own rhythm, putting everyone else in difficulty,” the Italian told the same source. “And when you're in trouble, it takes a long time to recover.”
This effort, Nibali pointed out, has a long-term cost. “Before you can get rid of the lactic acid, your legs go into crisis and it can take up to a week to fully recover. When you compete against Tadej, this is the main problem“.
Precisely because Pogacar can so often win by force, Nibali sees Milan-Sanremo as a different challenge. “Perhaps his limit, if it can be called a limit, is that he thinks he can handle everything by forcehe said.Look at Milan-Sanremo: he tries to leave everyone behind on the climb without thinking about the possibility of winning like I did on the descent“.
Vincezo Nibali also commented on the decisive moment of the duel Pogacar-Van der Poel from 2025, the one from Poggiowhen the Slovenian attacked on the climb, but the Dutchman remained calm and counter-attacked decisively, then was superior in the sprint.
The last kilometers of Milan-San Remo 2025
Despite the distance, Nibali remains convinced that Milan-Sanremo continues to reward riders who read the race rather than those who dominate it. “There the sprinter is always stronger“, he said. “Even if it's 300 kilometers, it's not that big of a difference.”
Only under very different conditions does the balance of power really change. “It's different if you've done 270 kilometers with 5,000 meters of climbing, because then the values equalize and you can win the sprint,” he added, concluding that Pogacar will try again and do it in his style. Which may not be enough.
