2026 will not be a year of crisis, but a year of differences. In a moderately turbulent and financially strained economic environment, companies will not be separated by taxation, but by the quality of management. Firms with discipline, capitalization and solid scenarios will make it through 2026 with minimal losses, while reactive, poorly funded or emotionally driven organizations will feel the brunt of this year.
2026 will not be a year of crisis, but a year of differences. Archive photo
In essence, 2026 doesn't punish good companies, it just tests their maturity, and companies that take the right steps won't be affected, experts say.
“2026 is a severe test for management, where managerial discipline will weigh more than taxation. We cannot control the economic environment in 2026, but we can adapt intelligently. The year 2026 will be neither catastrophic nor comfortable. It will be a year of moderate to high turbulence, where companies will not only be differentiated by taxation, but by management maturity. Before discussing what to do, we need to understand the context: forecasts show a slowdown, persistent inflation and high financing costs, confirming that 2026 is a troublesome but manageable environment”told “truth” business consultant Sorin Spiridon, founder of TPC Concept.
The degree of turbulence in 2026
Specialists anticipate moderate economic and financial turbulence in 2026. The economy will advance more slowly, inflation will remain present, and financing costs will continue to be high. A crisis is not foreseen, but a tense but manageable environment for well-run companies, while vulnerable firms will feel the pressure much more strongly.
In order to correctly calibrate the context, specialist Sorin Spiridon compared the current situation with reference periods.
Economic Turbulence (Scale 1–10)
• 2008–2009: 10/10
• Pandemic: 8/10
• 2012–2019: 3/10
• 2026: 5.5/10
The economy is not in recession, but it is slower, more unpredictable and with margins under pressure.
It is a tense environment, but manageable for well-run companies, says the business consultant.
Financial turmoil (scale 1–10)
Reference items:
• 2008–2009: 10/10
• Pandemic: 5/10
• 2012–2019: 2/10
• 2026: 6.5/10
High interest rates, tougher access to credit, more expensive working capital – it's a financial crisis, but the pressure is constant, says Sorin Spiridon.
The role of taxation in 2026: differential but real impact
It is essential that taxation is understood in context, not isolated as a single factor. In the opinion of the business consultant, 2026 will not be a year of crisis, but a year of differences. The separation of disciplined companies from reactive companies, clear scenarios of improvisations, mature leadership from impulsive ones, capitalized companies from vulnerable ones will deepen even more.
“Taxation is not the root cause of the difficulties in 2026, but it is an accelerator of existing problems. In the short term, the most affected are micro-enterprises, very small firms, and companies with low profits and thin capitalization. Some will not survive—not for lack of customers, but for lack of financial foundation.
In the medium term of the new taxation, the real effect is to reduce capitalization: lower profits, which leads to weaker capitalization, more difficult access to credit and less investment. In the long run, taxation does not bring down good companies, but it slows them down, reduces accumulation capacity, increases vulnerability in times of turbulence“, explains Sorin Spiridon.
Will there be layoffs in 2026?
Layoffs will occur in four types of companies: mature companies that estimate that the field will be affected in the long term and are forced to restructure, companies financially weakened after the last years, organizations without scripts and without discipline, companies led emotionally, not strategically.
“An important truth: in solid companies there will NOT be massive layoffs. Mature firms have learned that good people are hard to find, the workforce remains strained, the cost of replacing a valuable person is huge, talent becomes a competitive advantage when the economy recovers. That's why companies with mature leadership retain people and remove ballast, not the other way around“, adds the business consultant.
At the same time, he believes that investments in 2026 will continue, but will be more selective. 2026 is not a year of aggressive investment, but not a year of total freeze, he says, adding that solid firms will invest, but smartly.
Solid companies will continue to invest in the last mile area for important customers, in operational digitization – from automation to reducing downtime – as well as in the professionalization of sales and pricing policies. The retention of valuable people remains a priority, as does the development of management monitoring and control systems. Instead, speculative investments, non-market-validated expansions, and capital-intensive, low-ROI initiatives will be eliminated. Companies are clearly moving from expansion to prioritization.
What smart companies will do in 2026
Specialists point out that companies should take a series of measures to be as little affected as possible.
“My recommendation for entrepreneurs is that in 2026 there is no need for a reaction. They need a plan, based on an analysis. And this plan must be on: fiscal structure, business model, cash flow, fixed vs variable costs, HR & retention, investments, governance and legal composition.
Companies will ask in 2026: “What can we optimize?”. I think the right question is “What can we build differently to become resilient?”. Therefore, 2026 is not a threat, it is a maturity test for Romanian entrepreneurship. Those who pass it will not be those who know the legislation, but those who integrate it into their company's strategy“, stated for “truth” business consultant Gianina Crăciun, founder of Adeco Advisory.
Among the measures companies will take:
1. They will not cut costs, but will invest strategically in digitization, operational efficiency, automation, leadership & training, financial consolidation
2. They will recalibrate monetization models. The question will no longer be “How do I get money out of the company?” but “How do I protect capital and increase value?”
Expensive dividends will push entrepreneurs towards reinvestment, equity compensation, profit sharing, growth through partnerships.
3. They will eliminate invisible vulnerabilities
In 2026, companies will be required to have scenario-based budgets, real KPIs, internal policies, governance, fair contracts, integrated tax strategy.
In a year of 5.5 economic and 6.5 financial turbulence, the discipline of the first 90 days can be an important factor. The first 90 days for companies represent the critical stabilization period, adds business consultant Sorin Spiridon.
In 2026, one of the critical priorities for companies will be securing cash. That means speeding up collections, eliminating toxic customers, renegotiating terms with suppliers and weekly monitoring of financial exposures. A key element is the reduction of non-performing inventory – slow inventory is cash locked up, and in a volatile year, inventory turnover becomes a strategic advantage. At the same time, companies will move from optimistic budgets to a model based on prudence and realism, carefully reviewing commercial indicators, the specialist says.
According to him, companies that secure their cash, protect their people, retain good customers, reduce waste, invest selectively and closely monitor performance will get through 2026 without major pressures. The others will find that small problems in 2025 can become big pressures in 2026.
