“The events of the last months of 2025 indicate that Russia and Belarus have intensified provocations in the air domain, permanently including them in the catalog of actions against the Republic of Poland and other NATO countries,” the National Security Bureau (BBN) admits in its Wednesday entry on the X platform.
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BBN publishes maps. This is how Russia and Belarus provoke
It published at the same time two overview mapswhich depict events involving drones or balloons, including incursions into sovereign airspace or violations of no-fly zones both in Poland (map 1) and other allied countries (map 2) from September to the end of December.
“In many cases, we have noted that suspicious or dangerous unmanned aircraft/aircraft activity occurred in near airports or military basesoften in countries far west of NATO's eastern flank,” emphasizes the National Security Bureau.
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He adds that in 2026, it is expected that provocations in the air domain will be repeated. “Therefore, in the coming year and beyond, it is necessary to strengthen the ability of the Republic of Poland to ensure the security of our airspace and the security of critical infrastructure and military facilities. At the same time, this strengthening cannot be done at the expense of increasing the defense potential of the Republic of Poland in other domains,” we read.
Russia and Belarus regularly test NATO's eastern flank
At the end of 2025, a series of serious violations of Polish airspace were recorded, the key event of which was the unprecedented incursion of approximately 20 Russian drones on the night of September 9-10, which resulted in the first-ever shooting down of air targets over Poland by F-16 and Dutch F-35 fighters.
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Further tensions occurred in December 2025, when fighter jets again intercepted Russian objects during the Christmas period, and the National Security Bureau reported the entry of up to several dozen objects from Belarus, which triggered constant readiness of the highest state authorities.
These incidents are downplayed by the Russian and Belarusian sides as navigational errors or Western provocations, while the Polish services warn against an intensive disinformation campaign aimed at undermining trust in the national air defense system.
