Ukraine has enough resources to regain the initiative on the battlefield, claims Iuri Butusov, a military journalist and military active in the “Paper” brigade.
Moscow's troops identify vulnerable points in the Ukrainian defense/PHOTO: EPA/EFE
The unit in which he serves, as part of a tactical group, helped unlock the city of Kupiansk – a city that the Russian General Staff had reported the capture of as early as November 20 to President Vladimir Putin.
On December 12, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recorded a video message at the entrance to Kupiansk. In response, Vladimir Putin labeled him an “actor”. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to try to create a corridor to the city. Fighting is ongoing, and even Russian assessments point to a critical situation for Moscow's troops in the area.
On both sides, the clashes for Kupiansk involved relatively limited forces and means. According to Butusov, the unlocking of the city demonstrates the decisive role of the military leadership. He states that better coordinated decisions could have stopped the gradual advance of Russian troops on other sectors of the front.
In an interview given to the publication Ukrainska Pravda, Yuri Butusov analyzes the situation on the main directions of the front and evaluates the peace initiatives in relation to the realities on the battlefield.
Structural weaknesses on the front line
According to Butusov, the advance of Russian forces does not, as a rule, occur through a single decisive offensive. Instead, Moscow's troops are identifying vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defenses, exploiting gaps in the combat apparatus, lack of resources and uneven distribution of units along a very wide front line.
Butusov, who commands several drone teams in the direction of Kupiansk, made these statements in an interview for the “Rendez-vous with Ianina Sokolova” project, commenting on information that Russian forces had taken control of the village of Hrabovske in the Sumy region.
He states that there are significant differences between Ukrainian units in terms of staffing levels, leadership and technical equipment. In some areas, he says, there is a lack of commanders with enough experience to effectively organize enemy reconnaissance, surveillance and strike systems.
Under these conditions, Butusov claims, the Russian army identifies weaker units and vulnerable sectors, gradually creating gaps in the defense. The process is a long one and is not reduced to a single penetration or to point raids, but to the slow accumulation of negative factors that the Russian forces monitor and exploit.
“For example, the lack of aerial reconnaissance and strikes on the moving enemy. The Russians send assault groups, and if they are not destroyed, they understand that there are gaps in the combat device. Then they can concentrate in that sector and advance. This tactic is used in several directions of the front”Butusov explains.
Call for a change of strategy
Butusov believes that Ukraine should abandon excessive focus on “points on the map” and adopt a strategic defense strategy, focused on the systematic destruction of Russian forces and the creation of conditions that would force the Kremlin to end the war.
The main problem, he says, is the lack of a clear concept, as the battles are often oriented towards maintaining isolated localities or positions, without a broader strategic vision.
If this model were implemented, Butusov claims, Ukraine could eliminate up to 40,000 Russian soldiers every month.
“Then we will see how many months the Russian Federation will be able to withstand if it loses 40,000 men per month on the front. I am convinced that not very many. At the moment when their mobilization potential will be limited and they will not be able to replace the losses, the war will become unprofitable and the desire for peace negotiations will appear.”he says.
In his opinion, this strategy should be officially approved and transmitted to all levels of military command. The evaluation of commanders should no longer be based on maintaining pinpoint positions, but on their ability to effectively organize defensive lines, observation systems, military engineering, and the use of drones and other types of weaponry.
Butusov points out that such an approach could reduce losses and the need for “heroism” in areas of no strategic importance.
“We don't have enough men for heroic fighting for some empty, shelterless forest curtains. We can't afford to waste our men in a direct exchange with Putin. But we can take advantageous positions and take out 40,000, maybe even more, Russian soldiers a month“, he concludes.
