Article by Daniel Grigore – Published Monday, December 29, 2025, 12:12 / Updated Monday, December 29, 2025 12:12
Wolverhampton Wanderers are bottom of the Premier League with just two points from 18 matches. Her dowry is shockingly small compared to the football she provides.
“Wolves” not only do not beat anyone, but they are not even able to get a draw. Under the command of Vitor Pereira, in the first 10 rounds, they managed two draws. Later, in the match under the interim command of Jamie Collins and in the 7 stages with Rob Edwards on the bench, zero!
Edwards had been installed with the mission of saving the team from relegation, but seven stages later, the only objective seems to have remained is to avoid the most shameful course in the history of the Premier League. This one belongs to Derby, who collected just 11 points in the 2007/2008 season. Wolverhampton need at least 10 points in the remaining 20 rounds.
What's shocking about the team in central England is how few points they've scored in relation to the play they've played. There are many matches in which the “wolves” looked good, but were left empty-handed. The perfect example is the duel in the most recent stage, 1-2 with Liverpool at Anfield.
SF situation in the Premier League: they played for 18 points, got only two
The hypothesis is also supported by statistics. In the ranking Wyscout of expected points, a parameter that aims to calculate how many points each team deserves depending on the quality of the game, Wolves are 18th, with 18.4 points, when in reality they only have two, 11% of that total.
The calculation of expected points is based on Poisson distributions of expected goals (xG and xGA), by which the probabilities of the different final results are estimated. Basically, the bigger the difference between a team's xG (expected goals scored) and xGA (expected goals conceded), the more likely it is to be credited with an xP close to 3.
In other words, Wolves scored far less than they should have (10 goals at a xG of 17.66) and he conceded far more goals than he should have (39 at an xGA of 30.61). More simply, offense is wasteful and defense doesn't even resolve the phases that are solvable.
Leeds and Aston Villa, other 'anomalies'
The ranking of the expected points also offers some big surprises. For example, Leeds' position, one of three newly promoted. Daniel Farke's team has the fourth xP in the championship, 29.4, but has accumulated only 20 points.
Championship leaders Arsenal lead the expected points table with 39.3, followed by Manchester City (32.1) and, surprisingly, Manchester United with 30.
Third-placed Aston Villa are the polar opposite of Wolverhampton, strikingly exceeding their xP: 39 actual points, 25.1 expected.
These anomalies tend to balance out over time. History tells us that Aston Villa will not win indefinitely with such a game, and that Wolves will start picking up points if they maintain this level of expression. The question is: will it be too late?
Actual Premier League standings:
