Nigeria ranks just outside the top ten among the world's oil producers. Its share in global production is less than 1.5 percent.and daily production is around 1.4-1.5 million barrels. This gives it the first position in Africa, although sometimes Nigeria is overtaken in this respect by Angola.
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The amount allocated to this country by the OPEC cartel is 1.5 million barrels per day, but the limit is not always used due to problems with oil theft and infrastructure failures. In this context, the United States air attack on ISIS militants in Nigeria may be important information for the global market. President Donald Trump and the U.S. military said Thursday that the attack on Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria was carried out at the request of the Nigerian government.
“Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a massive and deadly attack on ISIS terrorists in northwestern Nigeria, who have since been mercilessly murdering primarily innocent Christians on a scale not seen for many years, even centuries!” — Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar told British Broadcasting Corp that the attack was a “joint operation” targeting “terrorists” and had “nothing to do with any particular religion.”
Oil market reaction
Brent crude futures, however, did not rise at all, as they theoretically should do in the event of concerns about a reduction in supply, but fell by 10 cents, or 0.15%. , up to $62.15 per barrel after 2:00 p.m. on Friday.
— The Nigerian attacks announced by Trump are aimed at the Islamic State and have no direct impact on pipelines or oil terminals. That's why investors are staying on the sidelines in this low-liquidity market on Boxing Day, said June Goh, senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities.
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Nigerian oil fields and export infrastructure are located mainly in the southern part of the country. In the longer term, US participation in pacifying terrorists will have a positive impact on the security of oil production and transmission infrastructure in Nigeria.
Oil prices are heading for their biggest annual decline since 2020.with Brent crude oil falling by 17%. in dollars compared to the close in 2024. Growing oil production in both the OPEC+ group and non-OPEC countries raises expectations of market surpluses next year.
“Quarantine” of Venezuelan oil
The White House has ordered its armed forces to focus on “quarantining” Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, indicating that Washington is now more interested in using economic, rather than military, means to put pressure on Caracas.
“Due to the Christmas closure, market activity remained relatively low at the end of the year. Supply-side disruptions have become a major factor affecting crude oil prices,” Tong Chuan, an analyst at Galaxy Futures, told Reuters.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks
Investors will also monitor developments in the peace process between Russia and Ukraine and its possible impact on future oil prices, as a peace agreement could lead to the lifting of international sanctions imposed on the Russian oil sector.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser spoke with members of the US administration after Moscow received proposals for a possible peace deal, the Kremlin said on Friday.
According to the Kommersant newspaper, Putin suggested during a briefing for top Russian business leaders that Russia may be open to exchanging territories as part of the peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that much could still be decided before the New Year and he hoped for a meeting with Trump soon. Axios news agency reported, citing a Ukrainian official, that the two leaders would meet at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday, although Reuters could not immediately verify this information.
