The year 2026 brings the temptation of an easy narrative that everything will be decided by geopolitics, Donald Trump, or the government. Meanwhile, looking from the bank's perspective, where every day we see what the real operational risk looks like, how the balance sheet works and what customers do, what they take out a loan for, why they save money, we see something different.
The biggest challenge of the coming year does not lie at borders. It lies in server rooms, code, industrial machines and technological decisions that companies in Poland will make or postpone for later.
In 2026, it will turn out whether Poland will try to catch up with the top league of economies that have understood how to use AI, automation and data, or whether it will remain in the group of countries that talk a lot about innovation but invest little. Money is cheaper, the economy is growing, investments in science and technology must start, otherwise this will be the last such good year of Poland's economic growth.
In the financial sector, this is even more visible, because every technological error turns into a cost, and every missed trend turns into a loss of competitiveness.
Even technology companies are missing out on major changes and major trends – the powerful companies that dominated the phone market essentially ceased to exist, and a chipmaker was bailed out by the US government because it failed to notice the creeping AI revolution.
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The disconnect between the promise of AI and real company results
The world lives in hope for a leap in productivity. The numbers are impressive – global valuations of AI companies are growing faster than any sector in history. But the economy doesn't grow based on stock market charts. The risk is simple: companies buy technology that doesn't deliver results quickly enough.
We see this in banking, where there is increasing pressure for automation, but the return on investment does not come immediately. In manufacturing companies, it can be even more complicated. In 2026, the most important question will not be “who implemented AI?”, but “who did it sensibly and with operational results?”.
AI is the largest instrument for increasing productivity in the Polish economy
Today, only 6-16% of people use AI declaratively. companies in Poland, and approximately 4% have real investment plans. This is paradoxically great news, because it means the greatest growth potential in the region. Every company that introduces process automation, data analytics, digital accounting or service chatbots gains an advantage that almost no one in Poland can copy.
In a country with a declining population, technology is the only real source of productivity growth in the 2030 decade.
Cheaping capital as an accelerator of transformation
The world, if the US trend continues, is entering a period of lower interest rates. For Poland, this is a chance to finally make up for the investment gap. Cheaper credit means more investments, and more modernization means greater productivity. But it's a broken chain if companies are not technologically ready.
Therefore, the key question is: can we turn cheap money into digital modernization, and not just into greater consumption? The state will invest funds from the KPO. But will companies chip in for their capital expenditure? Will the decisions fail against the geopolitical risk and uncertainty regarding the end of the war in the East?
A missed race for the regulation of crypto and digital assets
Poland is literally at a crossroads, because in the north, i.e. in Lithuania, financial supervision sees opportunities in technology. Customer capital is flowing to foreign platforms because there are no clear local regulations that would allow banks to take responsibility for the security of digital funds. This is not about promoting crypto assets. The point is to ensure that customer protection is provided in Poland, and not on distant licenses that no one verifies when the market collapses.
Without smart, stable regulations, we will be a country of users, not an economy where digital capital works locally.
A year of technological courage
As we enter 2026, I have the feeling that Poland is facing not one, but two parallel scenarios.
The first one is defensive, in which geopolitics is slowing us down, private companies are still delaying investments in technology, and digital capital is flowing abroad.
The second, offensive one, in which cheaper money, AI and investments in automation make it possible to make up for a decade of delays. Companies are chasing banks and even outstripping them, building the foundations for us to continue to grow as fast as in the past.
Digitalization is no longer a trend. It is the infrastructure of growth that is not created at conferences, but in late-night implementations, in IT “war rooms” and in risk assessment algorithms that are changing the way banks and companies operate.
Therefore, 2026 will be a test of courage. Their competitiveness for the next ten years depends on whether companies and institutions decide to modernize.
