New study warns that Earth has only three days to avoid a catastrophe caused by a solar storm
People watching a solar eclipse in New York in April 2024 (illustrative image), PHOTO: Erik Pendzich / Alamy / Profimedia Images
A new scientific study has calculated that a solar storm could knock out the planet's satellite system in just three days, causing infrastructure chaos and unprecedented disruption to the electronic systems that human society has come to rely on, The Hill reports.
Low Earth orbit is home to about 14,000 satellites, a sharp increase from about 4,000 in 2018. One of the main forces behind the growing crowding of space is Starlink, billionaire Elon Musk's satellite internet project. Operators perform a delicate dance to avoid the satellites colliding with each other as they orbit.
But according to new calculations, a major solar storm could collapse the entire system in just three days. By comparison, in 2018 operators would have had 121 days to avoid a catastrophe.
Earth is currently in a period of “solar maximum”, with solar storms sending coronal mass ejections and resulting in aurora borealis far further south than normal, including in Romania.
These storms can also knock out communications and navigation systems, leaving satellite operators with no way to control the thousands of objects orbiting Earth.
The dangers of a solar storm for Earth
The new calculations showed that if operators were to lose control, it would take just 2.8 days for a catastrophic collision to occur, setting off a chain reaction of debris that would destroy other satellites and bring down the entire satellite infrastructure.
Such a collision could knock out satellite-dependent systems like GPS, make parts of space inaccessible due to debris and, in a nightmare scenario, temporarily impair humanity's ability to operate vital electronic systems.
The scientific article, which has not yet been peer reviewed, also states that even a shorter loss of control could cause significant damage.
If the operators lost control of the satellites for just 24 hours, there would still be a 30 percent chance of triggering that catastrophic chain reaction known as the Kessler effect.
Although recent solar storms have not caused significant damage to communications or navigation technologies, such events have occurred in the past.
The 1859 Carrington Event is the strongest solar storm ever recorded. The aurora borealis was seen as far away as Florida, and the storm wreaked havoc on telegraph systems in Europe and North America.
With today's advanced technology, scientists believe that a solar storm of similar magnitude could cause continental-scale power outages and require weeks or even longer to repair.
