The talks in Berlin will not bring a breakthrough. The war will still continue
However, such a plan has no chance of being implemented today. This is for a very simple reason: Russia will not agree to its provisions. This, however, is of key importance because – obviously – it depends on Vladimir Putin's decision when the attacks on Ukraine will stop, and Europe does not have the tools to force him to do so.
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Putin is in a comfortable situation today in that his troops have an advantage on the front (although they are not achieving clear successes), and he does not have to fear that the Trump administration (which wants to end the war as soon as possible and takes Russian interests into account) will significantly increase the pressure on him or impose more severe sanctions. In short, time is on his side, which means that the Russians will not rush to reach an agreement that does not satisfy them.
President of Russia Vladimir PutinContributor/Getty Images/Getty Images
They had already previously (December 4) not agreed to the plan proposed by the Americans to end the war, pointing out that it contained provisions that were “unacceptable” to them. Therefore, we should not expect that the plan developed by Europeans and much more favorable to Ukraine will now be understood in Moscow.
And the Kremlin will certainly not like the provisions of the Europeans' statement. The Russians have repeatedly made it clear that they will not agree to a ceasefire (like the Trump administration, they want a comprehensive agreement) or to the deployment of Western forces in Ukraine to ensure compliance with the peace agreement.
Moscow's goal is clear: to obtain security guarantees from the West, including: legally binding document on Ukraine's non-accession to NATO”, which Dmitry Peskov recently spoke about, but which is not mentioned in the European statement.
Therefore, considering that the provisions of the European leaders' statement are so far from the Kremlin's expectations, it should not be expected that Russian leaders will agree to talk about them. Moreover, these positions are so far from each other that it is not expected that in the foreseeable future a compromise document will be developed that will actually end the war.
This means that in the foreseeable future, fighting on the front will continue, the war will not end, and the Kremlin will strive to occupy the rest of Donbas and present Kiev with a fait accompli.
