How Ukraine Can Exploit Vulnerabilities in Russia's Defense System. The move could deal a devastating blow to Moscow's capabilities

Domestically produced cruise missiles have the potential to deal a devastating blow to Russia's air defense production, paving the way for far more effective long-range drone strikes against additional targets on Russian soil, according to a new report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published on December 12, Kyiv Independent reports.

Flamingo drones are produced by the private company Fire Point FOTO profimedia

Titled “Disrupting Russian Air Defense Production: Reclaiming the Skies,” RUSI analysts identify “significant vulnerabilities” in the production process of Moscow's most important air defense systems.

In addition to tighter controls on exports of critical Western components and sanctions on raw materials used in radar production, analysts advocate prioritizing attacks on “critical air defense manufacturing nodes that are vulnerable to targeted attacks.”

For example, the report highlights that Russia is concentrating manufacturing and assembly facilities for the Pantir air defense system in Tula, Russia, just 350 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.

Analysts note that the area is heavily defended and that Ukraine's long-range attack drones have so far failed to cause significant damage; they point out, however, that as “Ukraine's stockpile of domestic cruise missiles increases, the ability to hit and damage relevant targets improves.”

Ukraine is developing several cruise missiles, the most notable of which is the Flamingo, described by President Zelenskiy as the “most successful” missile Ukraine currently has.

It has a declared range of 3,000 kilometers and a warhead of 1,150 kilograms.

Flamingo drone attacks on the Saratov refinery PHOTO profimedia

Analysts say Russia uses the Pantsir system primarily to defend critical infrastructure, meaning that if production were significantly disrupted, those sites would become more vulnerable to Ukraine's long-range drones.

“Therefore, Ukraine could launch a defense saturation operation near the city of Tula before striking a significant blow to production of Pantsir cruise missiles — which would ironically limit Russia's ability to defend other targets throughout 2026,” the report said.

“These are only a fraction of the areas of vulnerability identified in Russia's integrated air defense production,” the report added.

Ukraine has repeatedly used domestically manufactured long-range drones to launch attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure. Kiev is thus trying to paralyze Moscow's main source of funding for its war in Ukraine.

In addition to weakening Russia's defenses against Ukrainian attacks, analysts note that these targeted attacks would have the added strategic benefit of leveling the playing field between Russia and NATO.

“A systematic effort to exploit these vulnerabilities could have a disproportionate impact on supporting Ukraine in targeting the economic backbone of the Russian war effort and diminishing barriers to NATO air power, thereby deterring future Russian aggression through suppression,” the report said.

Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace earlier this year revealed a glaring deficiency in NATO and Europe's defenses – they lack effective ways to shoot down Russia's cheap, mass-produced drones.

The report also highlights vulnerabilities in the manufacturing process of two of Russia's most advanced air defense systems, the S-400 and S-500 missile batteries.

Any disruption to their production process could cause big problems for Russia, given that they are an integral part of the country's arms exports.

Russia's procurement of air defense systems was one of the key points of discussion during Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India.

“Ukraine and its international partners have a wide range of opportunities to disrupt Russian production of air defense systems. In the short term, this can help block the expansion of Russian production of interceptors, thereby improving the effectiveness of Ukraine's long-range strike campaign.”

In the long term, it would help maintain the balance of conventional deterrence in Europe. Production disruption is feasible. The fundamental question concerns the willingness of Ukraine's international partners to apply targeted sanctions and to do so rigorously in order to achieve the necessary effects.

It should also be highlighted to actors considering the purchase of Russian air defense systems that exposing Russian industry to disruption could make Russia an unreliable supplier in the event of a crisis,” the RUSI report concluded.