Recycled copper brought to the factory for processing, Photo: DENIS CHARLET / AFP / Profimedia
After soaring this year to multiple all-time highs amid supply disruptions and fears of U.S. tariffs, copper trading prices could reach levels unimaginable just a few years ago, CNBC reports.
Analysts at Citibank expect prices of the “red metal” to soar amid stronger demand driven by the energy transition and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors. Electrification, network expansion, and data center construction require large amounts of metal for wiring, power transmission, and cooling infrastructure.
According to Citi, forecast copper shortages – caused by mining supply constraints as well as continued copper “hoarding” in the US – are expected to contribute to sharp price increases.
“We expect the U.S. to build global copper stocks and, in an optimistic scenario, draw additional from already depleted non-U.S. stocks,” Citi analysts noted in a report. They predict that the price of copper will reach $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and even $15,000 by the second quarter of next year.
What is the current price of copper?
Copper recently traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) at around $11,515 a tonne for delivery in three months, while US COMEX copper futures for March delivery were around $11,814 a tonne.
Spot copper prices on the LME, considered the global benchmark, are up around 36% since the start of the year and are up 9% in the past month alone. The latest leg of the rally was sharply accelerated by concerns that Washington could impose tariffs on refined copper imports starting in 2027.
Andrew Glass, CEO of Avatar Commodities, agrees with Citi analysts and even says that copper prices will hit “new stratospheric highs”, especially as US physical stockpiling continues to erode international availability.
He believes, however, that the current increase reflects a “highly unusual distortion”, driven mainly by anticipation of customs duties rather than traditional supply-demand fundamentals.
Concerns that the price hike will cause problems in some sectors
Ewa Manthey, ING commodities strategist, said she sees copper prices rising to $12,000 a tonne in the second quarter of next year and that the rise will put pressure on margins in energy-intensive sectors.
“A lot of that tension has to do with U.S. concerns about tariffs on refined copper coming into the country,” Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX, told CNBC, referring to non-U.S. copper supplies.
According to data provided by his financial services firm, inflows of refined copper into the US rose by about 650,000 tonnes this year, pushing the country's stockpiles to about 750,000 tonnes.
Scott-Gray says that because copper prices are higher in the US than in other regions, economic agents have a strong incentive to ship large quantities to the country.
