Mariia Tsiptsiura: What is the current situation in Ukraine's energy sector after all the Russian attacks? How critical is it or not and will we be able to repair the damage caused by the aggressor?
Oleksandr Kharchenko: Objectively, the situation is quite complex, but it is not apocalyptic, it is not supercritical. Work is underway to rebuild the part of the energy system that was damaged. And this, objectively speaking, takes time. There have been a lot of attacks recently. Even where protection works well, secondary damage still occurs.
Therefore, repair takes time. Especially when the enemy uses cluster munitions – they still need to be demined. That's extra time. This actually leaves people without electricity for quite a long time. Nevertheless, the repair is ongoing and power is being restored step by step. At the same time, of course, we have lost a very significant part of our production capacity. Attacks on thermal power plants were extremely intense. Honestly, there haven't been attacks as intense as this fall for a long time. Therefore, we will likely have a generation deficit for some time, even after the high-voltage infrastructure is restored.
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What are the forecasts for a total power outage in Kiev?
How long will Ukraine have a generation deficit?
Why do repairs of damage in the energy sector take so long?
What are the current problems with reserves for energy reconstruction?
You said that the attacks are currently very intense, very frequent and there are no forecasts that they will end. Could it get any worse?
Honestly, I don't think so. We will simply live in a similar situation throughout the entire heating season: after the attack, there will be three or four very difficult days while the failure is being repaired. Some areas may actually be without power for up to 20 hours. Emergency damage can be quite complex. Then the repairs and difficult schedules begin when there is no electricity for 14, 16, 18 hours a day. After that, the schedules become more lenient. Then, depending on the pace of repairs, the situation improves. But it only improves until the next attack and we start the repair process again.
Do I understand correctly that, according to your forecasts, there cannot be a complete power failure, for example in Kiev?
I see no reason to talk about an apocalypse or a nationwide power outage. A cascading failure will definitely not occur. We understand too well what the enemy does and how it does it, and we understand too well how to counter it. In fact, they are no longer trying to cause a systemic breakdown. They changed their tactics to attacks on specific areas: destroying equipment, destroying distribution networks. This is very unpleasant for end users, but generally less dangerous for the energy system.
Well, living in winter at 15 degrees below zero without light is really not very pleasant.
Currently, a big problem is the degradation of distribution network equipment due to the conditions in which we work. Let me give you a specific example. As a result of the failure, a substation near Kiev was disabled – an attack occurred that damaged it. It was fixed quickly, literally within five hours. But then two more substations went offline due to technical problems in the zone that was turned back on. Before we got there, before we turned it on, before we restored power, people were without power for 18-20 hours.
The equipment has actually been operating in emergency mode for four years. Normal operation mode is simply stable operation, without shutting down. And now it works practically all the time in the “on – off” mode. Either schedule or attack. And of course it doesn't make things better. This extends the time needed to restore power to individual sections of the network that remain without power for a long time.
I read an interview in which you said that we have a difficult situation with reserves for energy reconstruction after the attacks. Please explain.
Unfortunately, after corporate governance issues emerged at Ukrenergo in 2024, we have received virtually no significant international aid for energy since then. Of course, the Ukrainian government must solve this problem in order to obtain subsidies and loans and more effectively rebuild the resources that are now so desperately needed.
Do I understand correctly that if Ukraine does not do this, there will simply be no way to repair the damage after a certain number of Russian attacks?
It is unlikely to be a “everything is over, there is nothing to be done” situation. But repair times will be longer. Let me explain: it's different when there's a ready-made piece of equipment in stock. The substation was attacked, you quickly took the element, brought it, installed it, launched it. It's a different matter when this equipment is not in stock. Then either the damaged one is repaired, which is theoretically possible, but takes several weeks. Or you wait for a new one, but it takes a month of transportation, or even several months if you didn't manage to buy it right away. Therefore, the creation and constant updating of reserves is extremely important, and there are currently no funds for this. There are still reserves and they will certainly be enough for two or three months for the most critical works. But if nothing changes, the reconstruction will drag on with each passing month.
