The war over mines and history. Why are Bangkok and Phnom Penh shooting at each other again?

After another escalation of the conflict on the border between Thailand and Cambodia, US President Donald Trump announced that he would ask the leaders of both countries to stop fighting. Damian Wnukowski from PISM estimates in an interview with PAP that such actions will not solve the causes of the conflict.

Nine people were killed in Cambodia, five in Thailand and over 100 were injured; hundreds of thousands of people evacuated from the border areas, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

Damian Wnukowski, coordinator of the Asia-Pacific program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), told PAP that this is another escalation of military actions between Thailand and Cambodia. The main source of the conflict are the agreements concluded at the beginning of the 20th century between Siam (former name of Thailand – PAP) and colonial France. Border lines were then drawn, which were unsuccessfully contested by Thailand in later years.

As the expert added, the current clashes may also be related to accusations by the Thai government (as it happened in July this year) that the Cambodian army is laying mines near the disputed borderthat injure Thai soldiers. In the fighting on land and in the air in July, 43 people died and 300,000 people fled from the border areas. people. At the end of October, Thailand and Cambodia signed an agreement on the implementation of a ceasefire under the auspices of US President Donald Trump, but its implementation was suspended a few weeks later.

– Already a month ago, on November 11, after the mine explosion incident that injured another Thai soldier, the Thai government announced that it was suspending the implementation of the October agreement – ​​explained Wnukowski. – It is possible that the current escalation is related to the fact that the Thai government has deemed Cambodia's actions to remove mines and stop placing them on the border as insufficient. But these are just guesses, because no official reason has been given, he emphasized.

On Tuesday, during a rally in Pennsylvania, the US president said he intended to call the leaders of both countries and ask them to stop the fighting. “I think they'll understand,” he said. – Who else could say: “I'll call and stop the war between two very powerful countries”?

Wnukowski reminded that this is not the first armed conflict in which Donald Trump has been involved; The US president claims that he participated in negotiating the truce, among others. between India and Pakistan in May this year. – Trump sees himself as a man who brings peace in various parts of the world, is striving to win the Nobel Peace Prize, and he probably also saw an opportunity to highlight his achievements in the Thai-Cambodian conflict, said the expert.

When asked about Donald Trump's possible influence on the current clashes, Wnukowski assessed that the activity of the President of the United States may influence the parties' calculations to stop the fighting, but it will not solve the causes of the conflict between these countries.

– Only Thailand and Cambodia can resolve this conflict between themselves. Both sides would have to agree, through peaceful negotiations, on the course of the disputed border so that there would be no further clashes, the deployment of mines, etc. The current American involvement has short-term effects, it is not a solution to the conflict, but a temporary ceasefire, which we can see after the ongoing escalation, he said. – We can consider possible support from a mediator here, perhaps from ASEAN countries, of which both countries are members, but in the long run, Thailand and Cambodia must resolve this dispute on their own, he explained.

He added that although the US president himself will not end this conflict, he has specific tools of influence in his hands, which may result in further short breaks in fighting. During previous negotiations, Trump, among others, threatened to raise customs duties on both countries, which could significantly affect the condition of both economies, because the United States is the main export partner of both Thailand and Cambodia, explained Wnukowski.

– This ceasefire was fragile from the beginning, it was influenced by external interference, it did not solve the basic problems or sources of the conflict – he emphasized. – President Trump's involvement does not solve the causes of hostilities, it only forces the combatants to take into account additional circumstances.

Negotiations with the participation of the US president were not the first attempt to resolve this conflict from the outside. As the expert recalled, in 1962 the International Court of Justice ruled in favor of Cambodia, finding that Thailand's claims regarding the disputed border were groundless. Despite this, Thailand does not recognize the verdict in this case. There are also discrepancies regarding the demarcation of the border itself. In 2013, the International Court of Justice confirmed its previous decision, supporting Cambodia's position.

When asked in which direction the current escalation of the conflict might go, Wnukowski said that although there was no sign of calming down the fighting for now, he did not expect the clashes to turn into a full-scale and long-lasting war.

– For now, the Thai side says quite clearly that there is no room for negotiations with Cambodia at the moment, and the Thai army may want to show its advantage over the Cambodian army so that the latter will review its hostile – according to the authorities in Bangkok – actions in the border areas. It is possible that the fighting will last longer than in July, but I doubt it will turn into a large-scale war, he said.

The expert also added that he did not expect the conflict to significantly affect tourism in the region; as he explained, the main tourist attractions in both Thailand and Cambodia are away from the border, and previous escalations of military operations in the border areas did not significantly affect tourist traffic.

Agata Gutowska (PAP)

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