Radio Free Europe reported that last Tuesday, representatives of member states in the Council of the European Union tentatively agreed that the sanctions already imposed on Minsk would be extended. The reason is smuggling balloons arriving from Belarus, through which cigarettes are smuggled.
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At the turn of November and December this year. Lithuania, which is most affected by Minsk's use of smuggling balloons, proposed the EU's introduction a ban on operations involving ten Belarusian banks (in addition to the restrictions already in force), introduction new limits on fertilizers and ban on imports of Belarusian rapeseed oil and salt.
Polish producers would certainly be happy about the limits on fertilizers, including Grupa Azoty, which explains its current difficult situation, among others, import of artificial fertilizers produced using cheaper gas from Belarus and Russia.
Sanctions plan
The preliminary draft of sanctions agreed at the level of the EU Council, as reported by RWE, assumes imposing them on persons and entities threatening “the sovereignty or independence of one or more of its member states”. It would cover anyone who “plans, directs, engages, directly or indirectly, in supporting or otherwise facilitating activities aimed at the functioning of democratic institutions, economic activities or services provided in the public interest.”
According to the draft, such activities include “unauthorized entry into the territory of a Member State, including its airspace” as well as “disruption of the functioning of critical infrastructure.”
The sanctions are to be formally approved next week, and their details will be known then.
Economical “nuclear weapons”
Analysts admit that the EU has certain options at its disposal that may be harmful to Belarus. Kamil Kłysiński from the Center for Eastern Studies pointed out that Lithuania, Latvia and Poland have the economic “nuclear weapon” of closing borders. – However, for this severity of sanctions to be effective, the blockade would have to last longer – noted the expert.
October 29 this year Lithuania closed the crossings with Belarus for a month, but they were reopened after three weeks.
In turn, Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik from the Department of Political Systems and International Communication at the Catholic University of Lublin and an analyst at the Institute of Central Europe specializing in the Baltic countries is more reserved in assessing the effectiveness of this tool. — A few weeks ago, Lithuania closed its border with Belarus. What was the effect of this? It had to withdraw because Belarus closed the crossings on its side, stopping Lithuanian trucks. That's it the sanctions imposed by Lithuania on Belarus backfired on Lithuanian citizens – recalled the expert.
It was similar after Donald Tusk's government closed the border in September this year. The analyst assessed that all actions taken so far by Vilnius, such as the introduction of the extreme situation regime, are only attempts to neutralize the effects of Minsk's actions.
In her opinion, it would be more effective, for example, to limit transit from Belarus to the Konigsberg region. Kuczyńska-Zonik, however, recalled that Lithuania, when joining the EU, agreed to this transit. — This would need to be discussed again at the EU forum. Gain support for such a solution. And not all of its members would be sympathetic to this. In any case, it continues, the expert argued, adding that if Vilnius took such action unilaterally, it could backfire.
“Belarus does not function independently”
In Kłysiński's opinion, banking and trade sanctions, such as blocking the import of Belarusian nitrogen fertilizers, which are not yet covered by a full embargo, may also bring the desired effect. The expert pointed out that Belarus does not function independently.
It supports Russian aggression against Ukraine and conducts a hybrid war against the West. So it's actually a country at war. And such countries have, above all, war goals. — So if it was decided in Moscow that we are now attacking and provoking Lithuania, then whether Belarus wants it or not, it will do so. Even at the expense of economic interests. Nevertheless, the reaction should be tough, because only such signals are understood by Minsk, argued the OSW analyst.
315 balloons
Radio Free Europe/Radio Swoboda reported that, according to Lithuanian officials who spoke to the station who wished to remain anonymous, since June this year. A total of 315 unauthorized balloons entered the territory of Lithuania from Belarus. Activity peaked in October, with 71 violations recorded.
Between October and December Lithuania's two largest airports – in Vilnius and Kaunas – were temporarily closed 15 times, affecting over 320 flights and serving over 45,000 passengers. passengers.
60 thousand cigarettes on a balloon
On the Lithuanian website Delfi we read that one balloon usually carries a load of approx. 60,000. pieces of cigarettes. Its detection by radars is made difficult by the fact that it can quickly reach a significant height, even 5 km.
According to the BuroMedia website run by Belarusian opposition investigative journalists, Belarus produces approximately 34 billion cigarettes a year — that's approximately 1.7 billion parcels. Official exports and sales on the domestic market allow for liquidation half of this production. The rest is to be distributed through illegal channels.
In the issue published on December 1 this year. In a statement, the Podlaskie Branch of the Border Guard announced that since the beginning of the year, 126 cases of attempted cigarette smuggling using balloons have been recorded and 19 using drones. The estimated value of the contraband is PLN 3.6 million.
December 2 this year Latvian Border Guard spokesman Rudolf Bounis said from the beginning of the year to the end of November Latvian radar systems recorded over 30 objectswhich could have been smuggling balloons, and eight were intercepted. In total, they carried 720,000. pieces of cigarettes.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Swoboda is an American government radio station that broadcasts information and analysis to countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East where there are restrictions on freedom of speech. RWE is funded by the United States Congress.
