Inflation close to 700%. and recession. Dark forecasts for Venezuela for next year

Venezuela's GDP will decline by 3% in 2026. – reported the Polish Economic Institute, citing estimates from the International Monetary Fund. Venezuelan crude oil imports to the U.S. fell by almost a third between January and September 205.

The Polish Economic Institute noted that current US policy towards Venezuela combines economic and military pressurewith the aim of weakening the regime of Nicolás Maduro, strengthening the US position in the oil market and limiting its ties with China, Russia and Iran. PIE reminded that US sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector, strengthened in the spring of 2025, included the withdrawal of permits for the production and export of this raw material, among others. Repsol and Eni companiesleaving the possibility of exploitation only to the American company Chevron, whose operations are also gradually being phased out.

“As a result, imports of crude oil from Venezuela to the US dropped by almost one third year-on-year in the period from January to September 2025 and accounted for approximately 2 percent of total US supplies (in 2024 – 3 percent). Trade relations of the United States with Venezuela are limited to supplies of crude oil and petroleum products (in 2024 they accounted for over 90 percent of total imports) and seafood and fish (1.5 percent).” – reported PIE.

According to IMF forecasts, in 2026 Venezuela's GDP will decline by 3%. PIE, however, pointed out that Venezuela's economic situation has deteriorated already in 2025. – economic growth estimated by the IMF was 0.5%. compared to average GDP growth of 4.6%. in the years 2021-2024. This increase was largely due to the loosening of sanctions against Venezuela.

“At the same time, from 2024, inflation in Venezuela is rising again – in 2025 it amounted to 270 percent and next year it may reach 680 percent. The latest results of the only available survey of living conditions in Venezuela (ENCOVI) show some improvement in the area of ​​poverty reduction. In 2024, over 73 percent population lived in poverty (in 2021 it was 91%). The improvement in living conditions resulted from a better economic situation, but there will probably be a regression in the coming years,” PIE reported.

According to PIE publications, approximately 7.9 million people left Venezuela between 2015 and 2024, of which 85 percent remained in other Latin American countries. PIE emphasized that if the extreme scenario of a US attack on Venezuela is realized, the increase in migration may be much greater and have a destabilizing effect on the region.

The growing US military threat against Venezuela may also have a negative impact on the Caribbean island states. The economies of these countries are highly dependent on tourism – employment in tourism (direct and indirect) in Antigua and Barbuda was 91% in 2019, and in Aruba – 84%. and in Santa Lucia – 78 percent. – reported PIE.

The United States has significantly strengthened its military presence in the Caribbean region in recent months, which has escalated tensions between Washington and Venezuela. The US authorities accuse Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro of running a drug smuggling cartel, and Trump signaled the possibility of military intervention in Venezuela.

The Polish Economic Institute is a public economic think tank; prepares reports, analyzes and recommendations regarding key areas of the economy and social life. (PAP)

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