This is what the markets will live on: bankers' decisions, outstanding payrolls and just until Christmas
This will be the last normal week of the year in financial markets before the usual Christmas flurry. The decisions of the largest central banks and the publication of delayed macroeconomic statistics from the United States will be key.
Monday, December 15
We will start the week with a standard package of macroeconomic data from China. Communist statisticians will show us the November results of industrial production, retail sales, investments in cities and real estate prices. The Indians will publish November data on WPI inflation (i.e. wholesale prices), and the Japanese will publish the Tankan indices for the fourth quarter.
The final consumer inflation (CPI) readings for November will be presented by statistical offices from Slovakia (9:00), Poland (10:00) and Canada (2:30 p.m.). Moreover, Eurostat will publish the euro zone industrial production results for October, and at 2:00 p.m. the National Bank of Poland will present Poland's October balance of payments.
From the United States will come the December reading of the NY Empire State indices and the business climate index in the development industry (NAHB). And at night (at 11 p.m. Polish time) the preliminary December PMI from Australia will appear.
The semi-annual report will be presented by Komputronik. The Votum dividend will be deducted from the price.
Tuesday, December 16
At 8:00 there will be a data package from Great Britain, containing October wage and unemployment statistics. At 11:00 Eurostat will reveal the eurozone's October trade balance. At the same time, Germany will show the ZEW indicator measuring the mood of its financiers.
At 2:00 p.m., the National Bank of Poland will show the statistics of November's core inflation, which economists believe for the first time in 6 years it is expected to be below 3%. At the same time, the National Bank of Hungary will announce the decision on interest rates. The price of money is expected to remain unchanged at 6.50% – which is clearly above the rates in Poland and the Czech Republic.
At 2:30 p.m The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will show outstanding “payrolls” for October and November. The delay in the publication of this key data for investors is, of course, due to the autumn “shutdown of the federal government” and the suspension of work, among others. statistical agendas. At the same time, the much-delayed results of October retail sales in the US will also be released (and it's mid-December).
Murapol's dividend will be deducted from the price.
Wednesday, December 17
The first item (50 minutes after midnight in Poland) will be Japan's November trade balance. At dawn (i.e. 8:00 a.m.) we will know the November CPI and PPI inflation in Great Britain. At 10:00, the Central Statistical Office will show consumer sentiment statistics for December – a key month from the point of view of retail trade. At the same time, there will be a December reading of the Ifo index measuring the mood of German managers. At 11:00 Eurostat will present the final HCIP inflation statistics for November.
The dividend will be paid by Dębica.
Pepco will show preliminary results for the 2024/25 financial year.
Thursday, December 18
At 10:00 we will be greeted by a pre-Christmas package of macro data from Poland. The Central Statistical Office will share with us the results of November's industrial production, producer prices, construction and assembly production as well as the results of average employment and wages in the enterprise sector.
Also at 10:00 we will learn the decision of the Bank of Norway. At 1:00 p.m. we will receive the last decision of the Bank of England this year. At 2:15 p.m. we will hear the statement from the European Central Bank. Changes in interest rates are unlikely to be expected everywhere. The Czech National Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged (2:30 p.m.).
Also at 2:30 p.m., data on November CPI inflation in the United States will be released. However, these data are now secondary to labor market statistics as the Fed cuts interest rates regardless of rising inflation that is persistently above its 2 percent target. As a supplement, we will learn the weekly statistics of newly registered unemployed people.
Grodno will present preliminary results for the 2024/25 financial year. The dividend from Amrest shares will be cut off. The interim dividend will be paid by iFirma. The transfer will also go to Novita's shareholders.
Friday, December 19
Before dawn, the Bank of Japan will decide on the level of interest rates. Increase by 25 basis points. would not be a surprise, although the BoJ rate itself would still remain ridiculously low (today it is 0.50%). All the more so because on the same day the Japanese will publish the November CPI inflation, which a month earlier amounted to 3% against the 2% target of the Bank of Japan.
In the morning we will continue to look at the consumer: Swedish and British (retail sales at 8:00) and German (GfK consumer confidence index – also at 8:00). In Poland, the December reading of the Prosperity Index will appear according to. RUN (9:00). We end the week with the American consumer, where we will get the final reading of the University of Michigan's December index (4:00 p.m.).
Intersport and Synektik will present preliminary results for the 2024/25 financial year. The dividend will be paid by NTT System.
