Prime Minister Donald Tusk created a risky rescue brigade of two Rafako and Rafamet companies on the WSE. Their shares make it earn the most on the stock exchange this year, but speculation about how for minority shareholders the state's involvement will end in saving primarily jobs and production potential, it is a high -risk game.
After Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that his government would donate PLN 700 million to save Rafako and rafamet the prices of their shares soaked up. The Rafako course at this year's maximum at PLN 2.055 (at most from 2018) showed this year's rate of return of 562.3 percent. In turn, the price of Rafamet shares at PLN 136 (at most in history) gained over 1082 percent this year.
After the Monday session of May 12, their return rate this year is still 306 percent respectively. and 952 percent, a Considering other WSE companies with capitalization of at least PLN 20 million, Rafako and Rafamet are characterized by the highest rate of return on the WSE. It is no secret that in investments, where there is a chance for high profits, there is also a sufficiently high risk.
Risky rescue (RR) on the WSE
Hence the term Rafako and Rafamet with a brigade of risky rescue (RR), referring to the Disney children's series of Disney with squirrels named Chip and Dale. The heroes of the fairy tale always came out of oppression and everything ended well in spite of their antagonists, which were the Cat Spoślak and the crazy scientist prof. Norton Niebunie.
Some investors may believe that the companies that the government intends to help will come out of oppression. Although the stock exchange values the future in the case of these two companies, the past is of great importance and its effects will not disappear as if by magic.
In the case of Rafako – a producer of boilers for the energy sector – it is about the December decision of the District Court in Gliwice about the declaration of bankruptcy, which became final in January 2025. According to the announcement, from the January date (January 21) the date of 6 months runs, after which the Rafako shares will be withdrawn from trading on the GPW. This means that the company's shareholders currently have time until the second half of July this year to trade its shares on the stock exchange.
The second great weight of the past in the case of Racibórz Rafako are huge debts. At the end of 2024, the company's obligations exceeded PLN 1.5 billion, of which PLN 1.41 billion was only short -term liabilities. All this resulted in negative equity and accounting value for an action of PLN -8.373.
State help is not to contribute to the repayment of huge obligations, also to the state -owned companies. The more that Rafako in bankruptcy is a company with a minority share of one of the PFR funds depending on the state and the bankruptcy administrator designated by the court.
Money from the ARP is to go to launch a new arms production at the new company RFK sp. Z oo based on the leased Rafako estate. In the queue to satisfy their claims in Rafako itself there is a queue of volunteers, and some of them already create advice, which includes, among others PZU or mBank. Needless to say, Rafako shareholders formally have nothing to do with RFK.
“RFK activities in the rail and arms sectors will not only secure jobs, but also activate regional suppliers and service providers, contributing to strengthening the competitiveness of the entire Silesian industry” – it was written in a message at the end of April.
In turn, the past of the rafamet from Kuźnica Raciborska producing cutting machines for industry and specializing in large and heavy castle castings led to the opening of sanation proceedings by the court in March this year. A company where the State Industrial Development Agency has nearly 93 percent. shares recorded annual losses over the past five years in a row, whose cumulative value exceeded PLN 65 million.
Only in the last year it was PLN 44.5 million, after revenues fell year to year by 31 percent. In addition, loan agreements and bank guarantees were terminated, and the management board has been directly informed about the risk of losing the key employee staff. The effect of a difficult situation is the rescue emission of shares worth PLN 80 million covered by the main state shareholder to recapitalize the reefamet.
Prime Minister Tusk's chosen ones
“I decided to transfer over PLN 700 million to the Industrial Development Agency, this money will help, among others, to help two Racibórz companies. Of course, Rafako (…) and Rafamet, the second company, which is today at the ARP disposal, will also receive help,” said Donald Tusk at the end of April.
It is difficult to expect a rational investor to count on a fundamental change in the situation of indebted and unprofitable companies, justifying such high increases in the course of these two companies. Rafamet in restructuring is currently valued at over PLN 650 million, while the rafako value in bankruptcy is over PLN 200 million.
While in a rafamet situation one can still talk about state aid to the company Wprost, with direct recapitalization through the chief shareholder and the divorce of minority shareholders, in Rafako the situation is more complicated and involves saving not the company itself, but jobs and assets.
In both cases, these are ideal conditions for a speculative investment game. This year, too much visible on the WSE on such a clear scale, which is also a charketerist feature of an advanced bull market, when the shadow of the chance to change the hopeless situation of a given company rains its course strongly. I wrote about other topics about other topics in the articles “Speculative departure on the WSE. High risk plays on Ukrainian companies” or “Wandering Polish Spekuła on the WSE of Stalówka and Armaments took attention.”
Michał Kubicki
