The gold price rally has stopped. For two months, the price of the precious metal on world stock exchanges has remained high, around USD 4,000-4,200. per ounce, but to a record $4,400. still missing.
Many people wonder if this is the end of the golden bull market? Or maybe just a momentary pause and after it investors will return to buying this precious metal with greater enthusiasm? Experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the world's largest investment banks, attempted to answer these questions.
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In the report of December 10, 2025, they draw attention to significant potential for gold prices to increase if investors in the United States increase purchases. The analysis suggests that gold's current positioning is low for them.
Gold prices and purchases among Americans
Goldman Sachs calculates that gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), which are the most popular tool for investing in gold in the USA, constitute only 0.17%. private financial portfolios, including stocks and bonds. This is about 6 basis points lower than at the 2012 peak.
Moreover, among the largest American investors (managing assets over USD 100 million), ownership of gold ETFs is highly concentrated. Less than half of these institutions have any exposure to gold. Among those who invest in gold, its share in the portfolio is usually between 0.1 and 0.5 percent. reported assets. For long-term investors, the share of gold is only 0.22%.
Gold prices. How much could they increase?
Goldman Sachs estimates that each 1 basis point increase in the share of gold in U.S. financial portfolios – driven by additional investor purchases rather than price increases – raises the price of gold by 1.4%. This shows how sensitive the gold market is to changes in capital allocation.
Goldman Sachs' forecast for the end of 2026 is $4,900. per ouncebut in the scenario of increased investor diversification, these estimates may be significantly exceeded.
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Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley recommends a 60/20/20 portfolio model (stocks/bonds/gold), and Ray Dalio of Bridgewater believes that “from a strategic asset allocation perspective, you would probably have about 15% of your portfolio in gold.” Citadel's Kenneth C. Griffin sees gold as a “safe haven.”
These recommendations are mainly due to two factors:
- Diversification: Gold is seen as an effective portfolio diversifier, especially in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty
- Depreciation protection: In times of concerns about currency weakening and inflation, gold traditionally serves as a store of value
