Donald Trump is trying to pressure Kiev to cede territory to Russia, but even if Volodymyr Zelensky agrees, Moscow is likely to want more, given that he has repeatedly signaled that the invasion of Ukraine is more than just a territorial issue, The Times reports.
Russia and Ukraine are approaching the fourth year of war PHOTO PROFIMEDIA
In an effort to seal a peace deal after nearly a year of efforts, the US president is trying to pressure Kiev to hand over the entire Donbas to Moscow, so that a truce can take effect by Christmas. The Kremlin has said it can only end the fighting if Ukraine withdraws its forces from the region – giving up Ukrainian-held fortified cities such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the Donetsk region.
However, and assuming Zelenskiy would agree to cede territory to Russia, Ukraine's constitution stipulates that territory can only be ceded following a national referendum, which would be difficult, if not impossible, to hold in wartime. On the other hand, a referendum would not be necessary if Kiev withdrew its forces without formally recognizing Russian rule.
But such a decision could run into opposition from forces on the ground.
Mikola Bielieskov, a senior analyst at Come Back Alive, a charity that provides assistance to the Ukrainian military, estimates that some sectors of the armed forces would likely oppose any order to withdraw from Donbas, with unpredictable consequences for national unity.
“When Ukrainians are asked to make unjustified concessions, it smacks of national humiliation — especially for those who have fought for over 11 years,” he stressed.
The Russian army occupies almost all of Luhansk region and more than 80% of Donetsk region. Putin warned that Russia will occupy all of Donbas anyway, if Ukraine does not hand it over. However, even though Kiev's army is outnumbered and outgunned, Russia would likely lose tens of thousands of soldiers in eventual battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
“Even if you eventually lose territory, it is better to make the enemy pay a heavy price than to create the conditions for his next advance. Retreating without a fight is politically difficult and militarily dangerous,” Bielskov said.
Furthermore, even if Ukraine were to cede Donbas to Moscow, the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon the invasion. “From Russia's point of view, all these peace plans are not aimed at a real settlement of the war, but at creating and exploiting cracks in Ukraine for a new round of advances that will further strengthen its negotiating position.”
Volodymyr Zelensky, ready to organize elections
The US-backed plan also called for holding presidential elections in Ukraine within 100 days. Zelenski's first term expired last year, but elections were postponed under martial law introduced with the Russian invasion. Trump said in an interview with Politico on Tuesday that Ukraine “is no longer a democracy.”
Zelenski denied he was “clinging to power” and said Ukraine would be ready to hold presidential elections in the next 60 to 90 days if Europe and the United States helped provide security. “I am ready for the election,” he said.
Zelenski told European leaders he was under pressure to make a quick decision on the territory ceding during a two-hour call on Saturday with Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the US president's son-in-law.
The Financial Times reported that Trump hoped for an end to the war by Christmas and gave Kiev days to respond to the US-backed peace deal.
Moscow has repeatedly signaled that the invasion of Ukraine is not solely about territory and that its ultimate goal is to eliminate what it calls the “root causes” of the war. The term is a euphemism for the pro-Western government in Kyiv.
Mikhail Kasianov, Putin's first prime minister, who lives in exile, said the Russian leader is obsessed with ensuring Western recognition of Moscow's leadership in the entire Donbas region. Putin told the Russians at the start of the war in 2022 that the Kremlin was trying to “liberate” the region from Ukraine, which he described as a “neo-Nazi” state.
“That's why he wants all of Donbas. It's about respecting him and his strength, so that no one has any reason to think he's weak,” Kasianov said.
