2025-12-05 08:31
publication
2025-12-05 08:31
On Thursday, the picture of the domestic stock market did not change, WIG20 consolidated near 3,000 points. There was also a lack of volatility on foreign stock markets, but European stock exchanges stood out positively – analysts from the BNP Paribas Bank Brokerage House note in their Friday commentary.
Yesterday's session on the WSE did not change the picture of the domestic market in recent weeks. Despite a rebound of almost 0.5%, WIG20 is consolidating near 3,000 points, and investors are waiting for a stronger impulse for growth or decline and a move away from 3,000 points or a break down to 2,900 points.
Strong blue chips, weaker mid-range chips
Nevertheless, blue chips remain relatively strong at the end of the year, which is consistent with the statistical seasonality of the domestic stock exchange. In turn, particularly medium-sized companies showed weakness yesterday, and mWIG40 fell by almost 1.0%, which is due to the decline in Asseco Poland, Tauron PE and Benefit. Interestingly, the latter company announced after the session its intention to sell 6.36% of the shares by its current shareholder in the form of ABB (accelerated book building).
Information from the conference of the President of the NBP after the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Council could have been important for the currency and bond markets. Adam Glapiński said that he personally remains cautious about further rate cuts, which will depend on the incoming data and the attitude of other MPC members. Moreover, the Monetary Policy Council will want to go into a “wait and see” mode for a while after the December rate cut, and subsequent moves should not be sudden. The tone of the statements is quite similar to those in the statement after the meeting and the November conference, so it did not have a significant impact on trade, although the zloty weakened slightly against the EUR and the yields of 10-year treasury bonds rebounded from local lows.
DAX stood out. Wall Street is waiting for the Fed
Volatility on foreign stock markets was not high, but European stock exchanges stood out positively on Thursday, led by the DAX, which increased by 0.85%. The session on Wall Street was marked by consolidation around the closing levels on Wednesday. On the one hand, a slight strengthening of the USD and a rebound in bond yields may have been influenced by better-than-expected data on unemployment benefits. On the other hand, futures maintain a high probability of a December Fed interest rate cut (83%).
As the earnings season ends and we wait for the Fed meeting next week, we do not expect greater volatility in global markets. In the afternoon, data from the US will be released, including the PCE inflation measure. Please note that these are outstanding data for September, not published earlier due to the closure of local government institutions (government shutdown) – therefore they may not have a significant impact on the markets.
Michał Krajczewski, Brokerage Office of BNP Paribas Bank
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