Glapiński talks about a pause, and experts talk about cuts. Rates may fall to 3.25%.

Interest rates may be lowered in 2026 to 3.25%. – wrote analysts of ING Bank Śląski, commenting on Thursday's conference of the President of the NBP, Adam Glapiński. They assessed that the first reduction was possible already in January if the decline in wage and employment dynamics continues.

During the conference, the head of the National Bank of Poland indicated that the interest rates would be reduced by 0.25%. in December this year were determined by continuing downward inflation trends as well as favorable economic prospects in the medium term. He recalled that in November, inflation dropped slightly more than expected – to 2.4%. y/y. The easing of monetary policy was also supported by a further decline in core inflation to the lowest level in 6 years.

Moreover, as he noted, an important factor behind the reduction was the slowdown in wage growth, which is currently the lowest in 5 years, and wage pressure is limited by the continuing decline in employment in the corporate sector. Glapiński noted, however, that there are pro-inflation factors, such as the increase in energy and raw material prices, as well as the accumulation of EU funds in 2026.

The Monetary Policy Council decided on Wednesday to reduce interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, including the main – reference rate – to 4%. on an annual basis. This was the sixth interest rate cut this year.

He announced that the Monetary Policy Council will act cautiously and decisions will be made month by month based on incoming data and forecasts. He also emphasized that the Council is not currently in any cycle and has no target level of interest rates. He admitted that, in his opinion, it would be beneficial to adopt a wait-and-see approach now and observe how their reductions have worked so far.

“In line with our expectations, the press conference did not give clear indications as to further decisions of the Monetary Policy Council, but the Council remains open to further easing of monetary policy. (…). We currently assume that CPI inflation will increase slightly in December 2025, and its decline and that of the core component will continue in Q1 2026.” – wrote ING Bank Śląski analysts in a comment.

However, they emphasized that if disinflationary trends are stronger and if the further decline in wage and employment dynamics persists, the chances for a January rate cut will be greater.

“Our inflation scenario assumes average inflation below 2.5 percent in 2026. Some of the inflation risks mentioned by the President of the NBP may not materialize, including smoothing the accumulation of investment projects from KPO and spreading them until the beginning of 2027, a possible further decline in core inflation, reducing CPI inflation below 2.5 percent,” they said. In their opinion, NBP rates may ultimately be reduced next year up to 3.25 percent (PAP)

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