The Formula 1 World Championship has reached its last race. On Sunday, December 7, from 15:00 (in Romania, on Antena 1), as the sun begins to set over Yas Marina, the engines and emotions of F1 will be at their maximum, as the Abu Dhabi circuit will host the final and decisive race of the season, the one that will decide the ultimate title.
Lando Norris starts with the first chance at the FOTO gazzetta.it title
The last time the fate of the Grand Prix title was decided in the final race of the season was in 2021, when Max Verstappen prevailed over Lewis Hamilton after a race full of drama and controversy. This time, there are three protagonist drivers: Lando Norris, the leader of the championship, who leads the sprint, again Verstappen, expert in such finals, and Oscar Piastri, the young driver who turned the season into a challenge. There will be 58 laps where there will be no room for error: every choice, every pass, every setting, every tyre, wing and engine of the cars will become a potentially decisive factor in the final result. Who will win? The specialists analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the three drivers fighting for the title: the favorite Norris, the “shark” Verstappen and the “awkward” Piastri, the three in the final battle.
Schmitz, the woman-strategist who heated up the season
Before presenting the palette of values of the protagonists, a special mention for the woman who heated up the end of the season. With an early pit stop, Hannah Schmitz, Red Bull's chief strategy engineer, changed the race in Qatar and raised the stakes of the final stage. The engineering studies and ideas that brought so many victories to the quadruple world champion team. The pressure of a championship battle that could have been decided in seconds provided a brilliant solution for Hannah Schmitz, Red Bull's head of strategy. In the pits, she immediately made the right decision, the one that changed the course of the race, propelling Max Verstappen to victory and giving the Dutchman the chance to fight for the world title in the final race. After the safety car came out on lap seven of the Grand Prix, Schmitz called Verstappen into the pits for an early stop, giving him a clear advantage over McLaren: “During that lap, I heard that McLaren wasn't going to pit and everyone was asking me if I was sure that stopping was the right thing to do, and I said, 'Yes, it was absolutely the right thing to do,'” said the strategist, who then tried to analyze the decision made by opponents. “McLaren are in a very difficult situation because they are going to treat their drivers fairly, but by doing this we can take advantage of it. Maybe they were scared by the mandatory laps and didn't know how to react properly.” Red Bull's “Chief Strategy Engineer” was praised by Verstappen and his team for the quick decision that allowed Max to take victory on the penultimate weekend of the season. She joined the Dutch driver on the podium to celebrate victory on a crucial day in the championship race and to personally lift the trophy awarded to the team after their Grand Prix success. The woman, whom Max has repeatedly praised over the years for her calmness and lucidity in making the right, even brave, decisions, graduated from Cambridge University with a degree in Mathematical Engineering and joined the Red Bull team in 2009 as an “internal student”, a role that helped her develop over the years, becoming one of the cornerstones of the team's decision-making process.
Meditation and numbers
Born in Caterham, UK, Schmitz said that to prepare for the tension felt on the track during the most hectic moments of race weekends, she follows daily meditation exercises. Numbers and data, the absolute key to her work, are thus combined with a winning mentality that has repeatedly put her in the spotlight. From the 2019 Brazilian Grand Prix, where he dared to make a third tire change for Verstappen, to the perfect pit times for Sergio Perez and Max in the 2022 Monte Carlo Grand Prix, to the most famous stunt in Hungary, also in 2022, when the Dutchman started from 10th on soft tires and managed to come back with a bold start to take first place to the checkered flag. The strategist thus added another masterpiece to his pit career in Qatar, with a success that makes the Dutchman smile more than ever, currently 12 points behind the leader of the standings. Max realizes that Hannah is invaluable: “I know my team will fight with me until the end and together we will try everything.”
LANDO NORRIS (Great Britain, 26 years old) – 408 points
Why yes
Norris arrives in Abu Dhabi with a championship lead that puts him in the most mathematically favorable position: 12 points with one race to go means he can compete without worrying about having to win. Not a mission at hand anyway. McLaren gave him a stable, predictable and powerful car for long periods throughout the year, a crucial aspect in the 58-lap race at Yas Marina. In recent races (apart from a strategic error made in Qatar), he has found a connection with the car and the team that has rarely happened before. He was consistent and rational in qualifying, at the start and in tire management – qualities that make the difference in these adrenaline-filled conditions. The MCL39 is the best car, but it needs to do the job it did last year when it brought home the constructors' title for Woking in Abu Dhabi.
Why not
Being a leader comes with a burden of having more to lose than to gain. The risk is racing in control, marking Verstappen and Piastri, rather than proactively approaching the weekend and the race. The pressure of having to maintain the advantage can lead to conservative decisions that penalize contest speed. In addition, Abu Dhabi was not always a favorable track for McLaren in the race pace simulations, especially in the middle phase with a full fuel load. Rear tire management could be a crucial issue. Then there is the imponderable variable: the attitude of Piastri, teammate but direct rival, which could make the tactical picture less linear than McLaren hopes. Finally, the psychological element: Lando is faced with the opportunity of his life, and he hasn't always handled these situations flawlessly in the past. Will he be able to do it this time?
MAX VERSTAPPEN (Netherlands, 28 years old) – 396 points
Why yes
“Max Verstappen” plus a “clear mind” is a combination that would worry any opponent. The Dutchman has nothing to lose, so he will race without worry, free to unleash all the speed with which McLaren has swept the standings in the last eight races, reducing a gap that, after the Dutch Grand Prix, was 104 points! Max knows the weight of a title decided in the last race, because in 2021 he took it as an opportunity, not a threat. He is a pilot capable of turning pressure into emotional fuel. Red Bull has worked to refine the car on the stop-and-go circuits, better adapting it to the slow and medium sections at Yas Marina. Verstappen knows his strength lies in determination: at the start, in wheel-to-wheel duels, in reading when to push and when to wait. He is used to playing the stalker, the one who can attack without having to defend himself. He will try in every way to put pressure on his rivals.
Why not
With a deficit of 12 points, Verstappen is in the position of having to run an aggressive race, but without making mistakes. A balance that always presents challenges. If Norris races defensively and Piastri finds space to close, Verstappen could be forced into battles that slow him down and increase the risk of contact. Red Bull showed some instability in race pace on some weekends when forced to force tire wear. Besides, Max's fate is not entirely in his hands. Even if he wins, he has to rely on the bad luck of his direct rivals in Woking. And with Piastri now third in the standings, paradoxically, he hasn't won outright: to play his last chances, the Aussie will push hard and, in doing so, could take crucial points, becoming a potential ally for Norris.
OSCAR PIASTRI (Australia, 22 years old) – 392 points
Why yes
To call Piastri the favorite for this final race is an exaggeration. Certainly, in Qatar, a rediscovered pilot could be seen. However, it was probably too late. Moreover, the team's strategy cost them the victory, with Verstappen overtaking him in the standings. This year, however, he exceeded expectations and proved that he can compete for the title, even if his decline after the Dutch Grand Prix will remain a stain that he will have to try to erase sooner or later. He will race like Verstappen, no worries, which in that sense is an advantage. But as mentioned, with two rivals in front of him, fate is not in his hands.
Why not
His weakness is his lack of experience in a championship final: he has never experienced a Grand Prix with so much at stake. He could find himself trapped in an ambiguous tactical role, neither a true outsider nor a commanding pilot for the team. The implicit pressure not to penalize Norris, his teammate and direct rival, could make his decisions less clear. Furthermore, Yas Marina is a circuit that rewards tire management and Piastri has occasionally shown some hesitation in this regard. It's a race where he'll need to attack (which would also indirectly benefit Norris and the team), knowing that his actual handicap might prove useless given the standings. In short, it will require something closer to a miracle.
