Inflation up, rates down? New Fitch forecasts for Poland for 2026-2027

The Fitch rating agency maintained its forecast of Poland's GDP dynamics in 2026 at the level of 3.2% and in 2027 at 2.9%. – stated in the agency's quarterly report. Fitch economists forecast one interest rate cut each. by the Monetary Policy Council by 25 bp. in 2026 and 2027

“The expected recovery in investment activity has so far been only moderate due to the slow implementation of projects financed by the country's Recovery and Resilience Fund (KPO). We expect KPO-financed investments to have a greater impact on economic growth in 2026. Bank lending growth also continues to improve, driven by the corporate sector. We now expect the economy to grow by 3.3% this year, with growth in 2026 and 2027. will remain unchanged compared to previous forecasts at 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively. – wrote in the Fitch report of December 3.

“Inflation was lower than we expected, with the overall CPI falling to 2.4 percent in November (…). Core inflation also declined gradually, reaching 3 percent in October. We currently expect CPI inflation to reach 2.6 percent at the end of this year. However, price pressures are likely to increase again, given that fiscal policy will remain loose, the general government deficit will be close to 7 percent of GDP, and the economy remains in good shape. Moreover, it seems “There are not many unused labor resources in the labor market, the unemployment rate is low and the employment rate is high,” it added.

Fitch forecasts CPI in Poland at 3.2% at the end of 2026, and 3.1% at the end of 2027.

The agency expects that after the December rate cut by 25 basis points. Monetary Policy Council, including the reference one to 4.0%, interest rates will be cut by another 25 basis points. in 2026 and 2027, to 3.75%, respectively. and 3.5 percent

Among the three largest rating agencies, Poland's creditworthiness is assessed highest by Moody's – at the “A2” level. Poland's rating according to Fitch and S&P is “A-“, one level lower than Moody's. In the autumn round of reviews of Poland's rating, Fitch and Moody's changed its outlook to negative from stable. S&P maintained a stable outlook.

(PAP Business)

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